051
FXUS64 KLZK 281755
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

An upper level ridge is working its way eastward toward Arkansas
this morning. The upper ridge will be over Arkansas Saturday and
will remain in place through Saturday night.

High pressure and subsidence will keep dry conditions over the state
through early Saturday. A cold front will drop out of the Plains
into north Arkansas Saturday evening. This will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the north Saturday and north and
central sections Saturday night.

Warm conditions will continue today but warmer conditions are
expected Saturday. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s
and in the mid to upper 90s Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the
70s and in the lower 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

SUNDAY/MONDAY:

In the upper lvls, the elongated ridge center will be positioned
over a region from the Southern Plains eastward over Arkansas. At
the sfc, a cold front will be moving through the state during the
day on Sunday and move into northern Louisiana during the day on
Monday to be draped along the I-20 corridor.

Expect an overall increase of POPs across the CWA as the frontal
boundary moves across the state. POPs will linger across southern
Arkansas on Monday as the frontal boundary moves into northern
Louisiana. Rain and isolated thunderstorms can be expected during
this period with greater coverage across the CWA on Monday and more
focus across southern Arkansas into the day on Monday.

Temperatures will be near normal with rain-cooled air and a slightly
cooler and drier airmass occupying the state over the two day period
of Sunday and Monday with respect to both low and high temperatures.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

In the upper lvls, the center of the ridge becomes placed directly
over the Natural State. At the sfc, high pressure remains across the
Mid-Western region of the CONUS as the state will be positioned
between two dynamic synoptic systems on Tuesday with a cold front
approaching the Arkansas/Missouri border on Wednesday which will
elevate POPs across the CWA on Wednesday.

Expect rain and isolated thunderstorm chances to return on Wednesday
across the state as a frontal boundary approaches the CWA from the
north nearing the Arkansas/Missouri.

Tuesday and Wednesday temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal as rain and thunderstorm chances will be isolated in nature
as the frontal boundary only approaches the northern fringes of the
CWA by Wednesday in conjunction with a Mid-Atlantic sfc high
pressure that will be ushering in Gulf Moisture likely returning the
need for heat headlines leading up to and through Independence Day.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY):

The impending cold front that nears the CWA will slow significantly,
but still be close enough to provide rain and thunderstorm chances
across the CWA, mainly north and along the I-40 corridor, however
these chances will be isolated in nature. Simply put, I see no need
to begin canceling outdoor plans on Independence Day, but the need
will exist to remain vigilant of any isolated thunderstorm that does
develop, especially for those participating in outdoor activities.

Temperatures in both relation to low and high temperatures overall
will be roughly 4 to 8 degrees above normal across the state and the
need for heat headlines will be needed on Independence Day.
Hydration and breaks out of the heat will be a must with dangerous
heat index values across the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conds are expected through the period with daytime Cu and
passing high clouds noted. Winds will be SW/Srly at around 10 kts.
Winds will relax overnight, becoming SWrly again on Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  96  75  85 /   0  20  40  40
Camden AR         75  98  78  92 /   0   0  10  40
Harrison AR       74  95  72  82 /  10  30  40  50
Hot Springs AR    74  98  77  91 /   0  10  20  50
Little Rock   AR  78  98  80  89 /   0  10  30  50
Monticello AR     78  97  80  90 /   0   0  10  60
Mount Ida AR      74  97  75  89 /   0  10  20  50
Mountain Home AR  73  94  73  84 /  10  30  40  40
Newport AR        75  97  77  86 /   0  30  40  40
Pine Bluff AR     77  97  79  89 /   0   0  20  50
Russellville AR   75  98  77  89 /   0  20  30  60
Searcy AR         74  98  78  87 /   0  20  30  50
Stuttgart AR      78  96  80  88 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...70