983
FXUS64 KMAF 281941
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
241 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A rather pedestrian forecast continues under the influence of an
upper ridge elongated W-E and and centered over the great state of
Texas this afternoon.  Unfortunately for those who enjoy the heat,
today will be the last really warm day this forecast, as highs
plateau ~ 10 F above normal this afternoon.  As was the case
yesterday, instability this afternoon looks minimal, and CAMs
struggle to develop convection over the higher terrain.

Regardless, should anything develop, it will quickly diminish this
evening w/loss of daytime heating.  A ~40 kt LLJ is forecast to
develop, and will combine w/a few clouds to yield another
unseasonably warm night with overnight minimums 10-12 F above normal.

Saturday, the ridge shifts east, taking the focus off West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Thicknesses will decrease, shaving a couple
of degrees off today`s highs.  A heat advisory or two may still be
warranted, but we`ll leave this up to the mid shift, as current
forecast highs are right on the fence.  CAMs once again are not very
enthusiastic in developing convection Saturday afternoon, keeping
better chances west and out from under the ridge.

Another LLJ develops Saturday night, but temperatures may come in a
couple of degrees cooler than tonight simply because Saturday is not
expected to be as warm as today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Little change to the long term forecast as a fairly normal summer
pattern remains for this weekend and into next week. Upper level
ridging will keep the area mostly dry except to the west over the
higher elevations. Lingering low level moisture, weakness in ridging
to the west, and mountains will allow for showers and storms to
develop each afternoon and early evening. Rain amounts will be low
overall outside of very isolated spots. Highs each day reach into
the upper 90s to low 100s for most. Lows settle just above normal
thanks to persistent southeasterly flow overnight.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases
10-11 kft AGL, and another over SE NM near the end of the
forecast period, w/bases 5-6 kft AGL. Chances of convection are
slim-to-none.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 77 103  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   76  97  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            77  99  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           75  94  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
Hobbs                    74 100  73  97 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                    67  98  64  94 /  20  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     77  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   78  99  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     79 103  77 100 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Borden-
     Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Scurry-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44