411
FXUS64 KMEG 270451
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The latest TMEM long range radar sweep reveals only a couple areas
of showers at 9PM, mainly over southwest Tennessee. These showers
will continue to dive slowly southeast tonight as the main
shortwave pivots through the region and pushes a cold front
through the Mid-South. Areas of light fog will be possible near
the front overnight as winds decouple and dewpoint depressions
become small.

Upper level heights will build in across the region on Thursday,
leading to a dry and seasonably cool day. Temperatures will peak
in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees with noticeably lower humidity.
The current forecast is on track with no big changes needed.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving through the Mid-
South this afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong to
severe with damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding as the
primary threats. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. A warming trend
will bring the return of hot conditions to the Mid-South on
Saturday, possibly as early as Friday in parts of the MS Delta. A
cold front will bring cooler temperatures and greater
precipitation chances on Sunday and Monday, prior to hot
conditions returning to the region on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Surface analysis places a cold front moving toward northern
portions of the Mid-South with an area of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of this feature. A few of these storms may be
strong/severe for the remainder of the afternoon/evening with
scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated instances of large hail
as the primary threats. Flash flooding may also occur in areas
where persistent convective activity trains over the same area.

The cold front will move through the Mid-South overnight bringing
a brief relief from recently hot conditions across the region
tomorrow. Thereafter, warm and mostly dry conditions will prevail
in the later portions of the week, as mid-level ridging builds
across the Mid-South. Heat index values look to stay below heat
advisory criteria on Friday, but a few locations in the MS Delta
may get close with heat index values from the NBM coming in around
105 degrees. Saturday looks to be even hotter, as mid-level
heights continues to rise. Temperatures across the region on
Saturday will increase into the mid 90s with dewpoint values in
the mid to upper 70s, making heat advisories and the possibility
of an excessive heat warning increasingly likely.

The mid-level ridging looks to break down on Sunday as troughing
amplifies over the northeastern U.S., which puts the Mid-South in
a northwest flow regime. As this occurs, a cold front is forecast
to move through the Mid-South, bringing slightly cooler
temperatures and greater precipitation chances to the area on
Sunday and Monday. However, this trend does not look to last long,
as temperatures on Tuesday rebound into the mid to upper 90s.
Heat index values look to reach or exceed 105 degrees around this
time, making the return of heat headlines likely on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Conditions have lowered to MVFR at MEM and are expected to lower
to MVFR at JBR/MKL over the next few hours. IFR conditions look
to spread across TUP around 08Z. IFR are possible at MKL/MEM,
though confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. Fog is
expected to form over MKL/TUP and remain through the early morning
hours along a cold frontal movement. As the sun rises, VFR
conditions will return across all terminals. North/northeast winds
look to gust up to 20 kts at JBR/MEM behind the aforementioned
front. Otherwise, north/northeast winds will remain 5-10 kts
across TAF sites.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...AEH