Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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513 FXUS64 KMOB 282030 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Rinse and repeat, the summertime theme! Subtle troughing remains in place over the southeastern US with upper ridging remaining to our west. Our subtle surface troughing will become a little more washed out on Saturday leading to a more standard diurnal pattern focused on the land and seabreeze circulation. Ongoing showers and storms will likely continue into the evening before slowly dissipating across the area. Like most summer days, attention turns to the nearshore Gulf waters overnight and into the early morning as storms develop along a likely convectively enhanced land breeze. Expect some showers along the coast during the morning and then a brief period around midday where it just gets hot. Storms will once again fire along the seabreeze and any remnants of the surface trough during the afternoon. The main threats could be a locally damaging wind gust and heavy rainfall with the strongest of storms. Temperatures will remain warm but given the potential for showers and storms earlier in the day, temperatures will not go full on surface of the sun and as a result we will likely fall below advisory criteria. That heat comes later in the week. Expect heat indices to range in the 100 to 105 range during the afternoon tomorrow. BB/03 && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Upper level high pressure strengthen and gradually build eastward from the vicinity of Texas/Oklahoma and into the Lower Mississippi Valley region late this weekend into the early part of next week. The upper ridge will continue to build across much of the Deep South and Gulf Coast region by Tuesday and continuing through the middle to latter part of the week. Hot and very humid conditions are expected each day Sunday through Friday with highs reaching into the 90s and afternoon heat index values likely ranging between 105-110 degrees each day. Heat Advisories will likely become necessary over much of our region by Sunday and Monday and potentially each day through the week as the ridge builds overhead. Deep layer moisture will remain pooled over our forecast area through Monday while a weak surface boundary also remains oriented across portions of our CWA. We expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop both days in the very moist and unstable environment that will be in place over our region along with the presence of the boundary. Convective coverage may tend to become more scattered in nature, especially during the middle to latter part of the week as the ridging builds further east over our region. Plentiful moisture and instability will still support keeping daily POPs in the chance range each day. /21 && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A moderate westerly to southwesterly flow is expected to continue through tonight, with winds decreasing by Saturday. For Saturday night and into early next week, a light diurnal flow pattern develops, with westerly to northwesterly flow developing each night and a southwesterly flow developing each afternoon. By Tuesday, a light southerly to southeasterly flow becomes established. Showers and storms are expected to continue developing each morning. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and waterspouts. 96/ BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 91 76 93 76 95 76 93 / 40 60 20 60 40 60 20 50 Pensacola 79 92 79 93 79 92 79 91 / 40 60 30 60 50 70 30 50 Destin 81 90 79 91 80 91 80 90 / 50 60 20 60 50 70 30 50 Evergreen 73 92 74 93 74 96 74 94 / 30 70 30 70 40 60 20 50 Waynesboro 73 92 73 94 74 95 73 95 / 40 70 20 60 30 40 10 40 Camden 73 91 73 93 74 95 73 94 / 30 70 30 70 30 40 10 40 Crestview 74 94 74 94 76 95 75 93 / 20 70 20 70 40 70 20 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob