Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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056 AWUS01 KWNH 280103 FFGMPD NMZ000-AZZ000-280500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0509 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 902 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...Southeast AZ & Southwest NM Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 280101Z - 280500Z SUMMARY... Ongoing convection associated with a thermal low along with near record PWATs may cause possible flash flooding. DISCUSSION...SPC Mesoanalysis shows a tongue of instability persists in southeast AZ and southwest NM this evening. Ongoing convection thriving on PWATs at or near record levels for the day suggests that the storms have the ingredients needed to persist in this area for several more hours. PWATs around 1.3 inches, SBCAPE above 2,000 J/kg and the continued forcing from the nearby thermal low are all working to keep scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing. Cooling cloud tops in the area also suggest strengthening thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall. FFGs are very low in portions of the area, at less than 1 inch per hour. The storms when they flare up have been producing rainfall rates to 1.5 inches per hour. Thus flash flooding is possible especially in flood sensitive areas, arroyos, and burn scars. Wegman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC... ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32760940 32520844 32340827 31780818 31310840 31331094 31411135 31901122 32421076