Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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687 FXUS63 KMPX 261149 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 649 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend, especially this afternoon when widespread rain is likely across southeast MN and western WI. - Quieter weather is expected by mid-week with comfortable temps. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A stationary front remains draped across north central MN early this morning which is defined well via current NT Microphysics imagery. Much of the southern half of MN and nearly all of Wisconsin are beneath upper-level cloud cover which has allowed for some insolation to our surface temperatures to remain in the mid to upper 50s. Farther north where it is cloud free, temps have dipped into the mid 40s and even few upper 30s. As for rainfall, only a few sites across central MN are currently reporting light to moderate rain rates. Drier air over much of southern MN is likely limiting the amount of rainfall coverage across much of the state. Mostly cloudy skies will be slow to improve beginning across western MN early this afternoon and then reaching near the St. Croix River Valley this evening. An upper-level trough located over the Northern Plains with an embedded shortwave in the mid-levels will make its way NE. Associated with this trough is a potent low-pressure system which produced significant severe weather across the central plains makes its way NE. Rain and thunder are in the forecast today as previously advertised however the track of this system favors more of an east-northeasterly track. Thus forcing for the best QPF scenarios have shifted into Wisconsin. For those living east of a line from Watonwan County, MN to Rusk County, WI will have a chance at seeing showers and some thunderstorms today. Storm total QPF associated with this system has reduced to a couple tenths of an inch. High temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s, whereas east of I-35 will reach the low to mid 60s due to higher amounts of cloud cover. Monday and Tuesday feature two shortwaves that eject from the same trough over the northern plains during the course of Sunday. The first wave reaches MN around sunrise tomorrow morning. Forcing for showers and thunderstorms will reach its best potential mainly for areas west of the I-35 corridor, and have maintained likely PoPs to reflect as such. Storm total accumulation for this rain will range from a tenth to around a half-inch for localized areas with heavy downpours. For Tuesday not showing much to go with for this system in terms of forcing thus anticipating not accumulate to much. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday through the rest of the period starts out with an upper- level ridging pattern and provides returns of a short string of nicer days featuring a mix of clouds and sun. Temps are forecasted to range in the 70s. Next weekend continues to look Active weather pattern heading into next weekend. Will need to wait a few more days before discussing impacts and amounts with this system. && && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 BKN-OVC skies will prevail for much of this TAF duration at all sites but precipitation will by-and-large be difficult to come by, owing to sufficiently dry lower levels of the atmosphere, except for potentially SE MN into W WI (thus MKT, RNH and EAU, and possibly also MSP) during the day today. Ceilings will likely drop into MVFR range over eastern MN into western WI late this morning through late this afternoon into early evening. Winds will remain generally benign, speeds 10kts or less, while mainly from the NE. KMSP...The only appreciable window for showers today looks to be late this morning into early this afternoon, and should not be overly impactful (worst-case, dropping to MVFR for both visibility and ceiling, but more likely ceiling). SE winds at the start will gradually back to NE and NW over the next 24-30 hrs, with speeds 10kts or less. More prevalent rain showers are likely after sunrise Monday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...JPC