073
FXUS63 KMQT 270523
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
123 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool late June night tonight.

-Pattern remains active, especially from late week into early next
week, with yet more rounds of showers and storms

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level ridging over the
Rockies and troffing over eastern Canada into the adjacent U.S.,
resulting in nw flow into the Great Lakes. Shortwave that was over
southern Saskatchewan 24hrs ago is over northern Lower MI. Shra
associated with this feature spread across Upper MI this morning,
but diminished dramatically while doing so. Heaviest rainfall
occurred over portions of the Keweenaw, CMX received 0.48 inches.
Where sun dominated the morning, shra have developed in ne WI, and
some of these -shra are affecting portions of southern Menominee
County. In the wake of the shortwave, it has been a cool aftn with
considerable low cloudiness across the w and n central. Clouds are
slowly lifting and showing some signs of scattering out, but cloud
cover extends across the lake into ne MN/and northern Ontario where
cloud cover is taking on a decidedly more diurnal cellular look.
Current temps range only from the low/mid 50s w and n to the upper
60s F s central where more sun has occurred today.

Expect some thinning out of clouds for the rest of the aftn. Despite
the more cellular look of the clouds upstream of the lake, the
considerable coverage suggests that these clouds are not likely to
completely dissipate tonight, leading to increased uncertainty in
min temps. With center of high pres shifting se to northern MN/nw WI
by sunrise, winds will become light to calm. Precipitable water also
falls to 50-60pct of normal, aiding radiational cooling potential.
Leaned toward the lower side of avbl guidance, which puts min temps
down into the upper 30s F at traditional cold spots interior w.
Given the cloud cover uncertainty and wet soils that dampen
radiational cooling, seems highly unlikely that it would be even
colder to support patchy frost development. If more cloudiness hangs
on tonight, min temps will easily be at least 5 degrees higher.
Otherwise, expect min temps tonight to range thru the 40s F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a
ridge over the plains and a trough in the ern U.S. 12z Thu.
Troughing moves into the northern Rockies 00z Fri and upper ridging
into the upper Great Lakes 12z Fri. Troughing moves into the upper
Great Lakes 12z Sat. Dry weather will continue into Thu night before
pcpn overspreads the area on Fri into Fri night and lasts into Sat.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the
lower Great Lakes region 12z Sun with a trough on the west coast and
a ridge over the Rockies. The west coast trough moves into the
Rockies 12z Mon with the ridge over the upper Great Lakes. This
trough quickly moves into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Tue which
then lingers into Wed. Temperatures will go from below normal on
Sunday to near normal by Wednesday. Pcpn comes back in for Mon
afternoon into Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR to continue through duration of this TAF period with Upper
Michigan under the influence of high pressure.  However, rain
chances and deteriorating conditions will likely be issued with next
TAF issuance as troughing overspreads the Great Lakes Region.
Meanwhile, no wind impacts expected at this time, either.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Winds stay below 20 knots into Fri morning and switch to the south
by then. A weakening low pressure tracking through the Upper Great
Lakes early this weekend will allow for s-se gusts 20-25 kt Friday
over mainly the east half ahead of the front and then nw gusts 20-25
kt behind the cold frontal passage on Saturday before building high
pressure returns Sunday and ushers in lighter winds into Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07