355
FXUS63 KMQT 241833
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
233 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Other than a low chance (15-30%) of showers this afternoon
  through tonight in eastern Upper Michigan, dry weather is
  expected this week into the weekend.

- Temperatures trend to well above normal by late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Upper Michigan remains under the influence of high pressure early
this morning per latest surface/RAP analysis.  But, weak WAA in the
return flow ahead of the next disturbance currently over the
Dakotas/MN has kept temperatures a tad warmer than yesterday
morning.  Currently, ground-based obs across the area are generally
reporting mid to upper 40s with the usual cold spots coming in
around 40, 10 degrees warmer than yesterday morning`s obs at this
time. And, any fog formation so far has remained concentrated
over the Land O` Lakes area.

For the remainder of today, expect pleasant weather with plenty
of sunshine and high temperatures warming into the upper 60s in
the southerly flow. The exception could be a few rain showers
sneaking into the far eastern portions of the area late in the
day as a surface low tracks northeast across Illinois. But, the
best dynamics with this disturbance should stay south and east
of Upper Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a
ridge in the Rockies and a trough in the Mississippi Valley and
Great Lakes region 12z Wed. Ridging then moves into the northern
plains by 00z Thu and builds into the upper Great Lakes after 00z
Fri. Dry weather continues through Friday.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low over the
mid Mississippi Valley with a ridge over most of the rest of the
U.S. 12z Sat which remains the same through 12z Sun. By 12z Mon, a
trough moves into the northern plains which then moves into the
upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Temperatures look to be above normal
through the period with a cooling trend on Tuesday. Went dry for
pops Sat night through Sun night with high pressure in the area.
Starting Monday, pops start to show up in the forecast, but thinking
is they might be overdone a tad bit especially with upper level
ridging in the area which is strong. Only fly in the ointment is a
sfc cold front stalled out over the area Monday which looks to start
off dry anyway before upper troughing starts to affect the area
Tuesday. Confidence is low with pops on Monday and would like to
trim back pops on Tuesday as they seem overdone due to strength of
upper ridge, but will leave alone for now as manual progs show a
cold front moving through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Aside from a pesky MVFR deck at KCMX that is only expected to hang
on another couple of hours into the afternoon at most, VFR prevails
at all TAF sites through this evening. Mainly light winds under 5
knots with low pressure well to the southeast, though the direction
may become variable especially in the vicinity of lake breezes.
Overnight, CMX and IWD will stay VFR, but SAW is at least 35% likely
to see radiation fog drop visbys below MVFR thresholds with up to
15% probabilities of airport minimum dense fog. For now, will cap at
MVFR, but if model trends towards lower visibility, could see IFR or
LIFR in future TAF issuances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

With a persistent benign pattern over the area, the wind will stay
at or below 20 knots for this forecast period.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...07