Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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872 FXUS63 KMQT 191141 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 741 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers and thunderstorms linger mainly across the eastern UP through the morning, largely ending this afternoon. -Temperatures trend more towards normal. - Potential heavy rain event this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Low pressure moving over Ontario continues to slowly drag a cold front through the area today. Showers and storms out ahead of it have become lighter and more spotty in nature over the past few hours, currently training over the central UP and Lake Superior. The front, currently moving into the western UP, should be heading into the central and eastern UP by the afternoon hours. There is a chance for some additional showers and even a few rumbles of thunder to develop along the boundary, but early morning cloud cover may limit destabilization today. For what it`s worth, CAMs also struggle to develop anything more than some spotty, weak activity this afternoon. Otherwise, look for a cooler day with temperatures ranging in the 70s under cloudy skies. Winds may initially be breezy with the passing front, but should turn calmer into the evening hours as a ridge begins to build behind the exiting system. Most of hte area should be dry tonight, but a few showers will still not be totally ruled out across the south-central UP as the weakening boundary continues to sag southward. Temperatures fall back into the 50s across most of the area, but some cooler spots may reach the upper 40s, especially where we can see some breaks in the clouds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Weak lower to midlevel ridging builds southward from Ontario for Thursday while a weak trough ripples through WI and the LP. With dry lower to midlevels apparent in soundings, a drier scenario will likely win out for Thursday - but still will allow for the possibility of a few showers and rumbles of thunder, mainly across the south-central UP. Thursday night, a shortwave begins to eject out of the Rockies, kicking off warm frontogenesis and our next chances for rain and thunderstorms as early as Friday morning. The front stalls out somewhere in our vicinity Friday, strengthening Friday evening into early this weekend as a surface low closes off and deepens, and a 30- 45kt LLJ becomes directed across the boundary. We could see some heavy rainfall out of this, as ensembles show PWATs near the max of modeled climatology (nearly 2"). With training very possible along the front given it`s slow movement northwards, we may need to keep an eye on flooding concerns across our area. Will note that ensembles are indicating a high chance (as high as 50-70% chance) for rain totals in excess of an inch across much of the area by Saturday evening, in particular across the western UP, where we`ve been able to pick up on quite a bit of rainfall over the past several days already. The low moves ENE through the area Saturday night, and we may be able to see a brief dry period overnight into early Sunday before another clipper drops through during the daytime Sunday. This will bring in another round of showers and storms to finish out the weekend. Moving into early next week, expect ridging and finally some drier weather as a high pressure moves from the Plains through the Midwest. This will give way to yet another potential for some wet weather by Tuesday as a shortwave moving through Ontario drags a cold front through the Great Lakes. Overall, expect temperatures to be near normal for the extended period, with some days showing below normal high temperatures (such as Thursday, Friday, and Sunday). Outside of the rain and storm chances throughout the next week, the only other thing worth mentioning is the possibility for localized river flooding along the Chocolay River near Harvey. With much of the basin having received between 2 to 3.5 inches of rainfall over the past 24+ hours, and the Observation Program Leader having gone out to the Chocolay near Yelden (around Skandia) and seeing the river already up to the bridge, there may be some isolated spots along the river near Harvey that could see some river flooding issues that are more typical to the Spring-time (water in basements, etc.) This situation will continue to be monitored by the staff here at WFO MQT, as well as the NCRFC while the water from the recent rainfall slowly exits the Chocolay River Basin into Lake Superior. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 740 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 IFR/MVFR conditions to perist through the morning at all TAF sites as a cold front moves through Upper Michigan. The bulk of the convective activity is now east of TAF sites, but cannot rule out a few scattered showers, yet, through early afternoon at SAW. Other impacts will be strong westerly winds at CMX today sustained at 19 kts, gusting to 30 kts. Elsewhere, westerly winds will be sustained at 12 kts at IWD and CMX. && .MARINE... Issued at 451 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Winds remain fairly erratic early this morning with lingering convection as a cold front slowly moves through the area. That said, ahead of the front, winds should primarily be out of the south while veering to the SW then west behind it. Gusts to 20-25kts remain common across the lake, though higher gusts up to 25-30kts will be possible especially between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale this morning. Winds weaken to 20 knots or less again by the early evening as ridging builds in over Lake Superior behind the decaying cold front boundary. Winds stay light at until this weekend, when a Colorado Low followed by a Clipper system will see winds gusting to around 20kts Saturday and Sunday. Ridging into early next week will bring a return to quiet weather. The other mentionable hazard over Lake Superior for the next several days is thunderstorms. Thunderstorms continue to move across the central portions of the lake early this morning, finally moving out by the early afternoon. Then, chances for thunderstorms return Friday and continue through the weekend with our aforementioned systems moving through, though severe weather is not looking likely at this point. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-263-264. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...LC AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...LC