652
FXUS64 KMRX 060709
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
309 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Key Messages:

1. Patchy fog this morning will dissipate shortly after sunrise.

2. Low chances for showers and storms today will be confined to
near the East Tennessee Mountains and North Carolina counties.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a broad trough remains over the Great Plains
and the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move through
the region early this morning, weak high pressure will move in
behind it. Patchy fog has developed this morning. Fog will
dissipate shortly after sunrise if not sooner as the front moves
through. Although, the much lower dew points are still in Western
and Central Kentucky. Highs today will be mainly in the upper 80s
and lower 90s but humidity will be lower with those lower dew
points en route. Most locations will be sunny today and showers
and storms will be confined to near the East Tennessee Mountains
and North Carolina counties. Even there, rain chances are low
since northwesterly 850mb flow will be weak around 5 to 10 kt.
The tonight period will be dry and pleasant.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Key Messages:

1. Mostly dry conditions continue into Sunday.

2. Heat indices of 100-105 degrees returns for early next week as
low-level moisture pulls back into the area.

3. First half of next week looks fairly active, so confidence is a
little higher for better afternoon thunderstorm coverage each day.

4. Remains of BERYL with deep moisture may move into the Tennessee
valley for mid to late week. Locally heavy rains and localized flash
flooding possible but confidence on track of best convection low.

Discussion:

Dayshift discussion nailed things down quite well and essentially
will replicate what was stated. For much of the extended, upper
trough over the mid-section of the nation with ridging far southeast
United States. This pattern will keep southwest flow aloft over the
region for the extended with increasing moisture (PWs) by early next
week. One of the main weather stories will be the track of BERYL
moisture with the potential of deep tropical moisture by mid to late
week over the region which would lead to better threat of isolated
flash flooding. As was stated, convection is possible anytime but
diurnally greatest coverage in the afternoon and evening hours.

For Sunday, the Theta-e ridge is initially east of the spine of the
Appalachians but pulls into the far east Tennessee mountains and
southwest North Carolina in the afternoon and evening.

For Monday and Tuesday, the moist and unstable Theta-e ridge axis
pulls far westward into much of the area with increasing coverage of
storms especially afternoon/evening.

For late Tuesday night through Thursday, deep tropical moisture from
the remnants of BERYL may move across the Tennessee valley into the
southern Appalachians. Anomously high PWs of 2.1 to 2.2 inches along
with high Theta-e ridge axis over the area will set the stage for
increasing threat of flash flooding.

For Friday, deep sub-tropical moisture will remain but upper ridging
will strengthen across the southern Appalachians. Overall, hot and
muggy conditions with continued diurnal convection. Coverage of
storms will likely be less due to the higher heights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Patchy fog is starting to develop across the region. TRI and TYS
will likely see fog and low CIGs in the early morning hours but
there is some uncertainty with how dense and widespread the fog
will be. Fog and low CIGs will lift shortly after sunrise.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this TAF cycle with very
low rain chances. Light winds will become more northerly this
morning as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  72  94  74 /   0  10  20  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  70  92  73 /  10  10  20  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  69  93  72 /   0   0  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  67  90  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...McD