952
FXUS64 KMRX 210128 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
928 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Temperatures are falling a little faster than forecast, so hourly
temp/dewpoint grids will need an update. Other than that, the
forecast looks in good shape. Fog is not expected to be as dense
or widespread as last night as afternoon dewpoints were lower
today compared to yesterday. Still, some valleys and rivers/lakes
could see some fog, mainly in northern sections.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

If you love today then you will like tomorrow. Daytime temps will
be about the same, maybe slightly more humid. Patchy morning fog
for the northeast third, and during the afternoon there may be
isolated showers over VA and the northern mountains. Otherwise,
lots of similarities with today because our controlling ridge of
high pressure will remain in place, allowing only the weakest
shortwave on its northern perimeter to bring those isolated
showers tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Key Messages:

1. Hot and mostly dry through the weekend. Max temps around 10
degrees above normal

2. Above normal temperatures remain through Tuesday, but with
increasing chances of precipitation.

Mostly dry conditions in place through Sunday as we will be under
the influence of high pressure just to our south. Temperatures will
be around 10 degrees above normal on Sunday, with Heat Indices in
the mid to upper 90s across the central and southern TN Valley.

By Monday the ridge begins to flatten as a shortwave moves into the
Missouri River Valley. Due to decreasing heights, and weak
divergence from the upper jet, POPs will increase on Monday. POPs
will be diurnally driven. On Tuesday, the ridge axis shifts to our
east as the aforementioned shortwave swings up into the Great Lakes.
A slightly stronger 300mb jet is overhead on Tuesday, resulting in
slightly higher POPs than Monday.

Wednesday and beyond, the forecast becomes much more uncertain.
Models generally show a long wave trough diving down into the
central U.S. and moving east. However, the evolution and placement of
this feature is in high disagreement. Will leave slight chance and
chance NBM POPs alone as of now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Fog potential at TRI appears less tonight compared to the last few
nights. Observed dewpoints this afternoon are several degrees
lower than this time yesterday, and forecast temperatures are
warmer. However, there is model guidance indicating fog will form,
so will have IFR vis prevailing in the morning, with a TEMPO for
LIFR conditions. TYS and CHA will remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  66  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  63  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  63  91  66 /  10   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  61  86  62 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
AVIATION...DGS