870
FNUS75 KMSO 161452
FWSMSO

Spot Forecast for Elk Creek
National Weather Service Missoula MT
852 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 MDT on September 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A cut off upper level low pressure system is
forecast to move across the region Tuesday and Wednesday. This
will be a very wet system with a 60% chance of half an inch or
more of rain on the fire by Wednesday morning and a 17% chance of
1 inch or more of rain on the fire by Wednesday morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and
  chance of thunderstorms.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...10 percent.
* Chance Lightning....25 percent.
* LAL.................2.
* Max Temperature.....59-64.
* Min Humidity........60-70 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Southeast around 9 mph.
* Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl increasing to 8000 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........Southeast 10 mph.
* Haines Index........3 very low.
* Precip Amount.......0.03 inches.

.TONIGHT...

* Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and chance
  of thunderstorms.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...30 percent.
* Chance Lightning....40 percent.
* LAL.................2.
* Min Temperature.....40-45.
* Max Humidity........90-100 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Northeast around 8 mph.
* Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl decreasing to 500 ft agl.
* Mixing Winds........East 5 mph.
* Precip Amount.......0.07 inches.

.TUESDAY...

* Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms all day.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...80 percent.
* Chance Lightning....30 percent.
* LAL.................2.
* Max Temperature.....48-53.
* Min Humidity........75-85 percent.
* Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 5-6 mph in the afternoon.
* Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl increasing to 4000 ft agl late in
  the afternoon.
* Mixing Winds........South 5 mph.
* Haines Index........2 very low.
* Precip Amount.......0.18 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Leach
Requested by...Chris Kramer
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2422532.0/MSO
.DELDT 09/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL christopher.m.kramer@usda.gov