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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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468 FXUS66 KMTR 271105 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 405 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 324 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Expect pleasant temperatures mostly at, or slightly below normal for the remainder of the work week through the weekend. Confidence is increasing for a warm up next week, potentially very warm for the second half of next week. Monitor the forecast for Fourth of July outdoor planning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Marine stratus over open water is making progress east toward our coastal areas early this morning. Gusty onshore winds across the North Bay have persisted overnight with the ACV-SFO and SFO-SAC pressure gradients also beginning to assist in low stratus developing over the area. That trend will continue as the larger area of marine stratus over the water moves south through the morning. The low stratus clouds will be mostly confined close to the shoreline, eventually clearing out and making for another sunny pleasant afternoon and evening, similar to yesterday. An upper level shortwave trough deepens just to our west later today and tonight, as a result midlevel flow will back slightly to the west with deeper marine layer moisture in place. Expect increase coverage of low stratus late tonight into Friday morning, ultimate filling the interior valleys and gaps along the North Bay and Central Coast. Temperatures increase slightly to right around normal for this time of year on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Progressive shortwave troughing will persist through the weekend, helping to maintain the pleasant temperatures we`re seeing this week through Sunday. However, a pattern change appears to be on the horizon for the beginning of next week. The last of the shortwave troughs will shift east later in the day on Sunday, allowing for a potentially strong dome of high pressure to build over our area for the beginning of next week, and possibly persist past the current extended forecast period. NBM temperatures that far out seem reasonable attm, but there are signals for an impactful heat event not only across our interior locations, but very warm temperatures possibly impacting coastal locations as well. The forecast should be monitored closely with fourth of July holiday activities being planned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 405 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Currently VFR at all terminals with stratus beginning to fill in along the coast. Confidence is increasing that terminals will be able to escape the stratus this morning; however, if that is not the case, the terminals most likely to be impacted will be MRY, OAK, SFO, and SNS, and it will likely be with a brief low-end MVFR to IFR ceiling. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Winds will prevail out of the west today and transition to a southwesterly heading towards the end of the TAF period. Moderate confidence on a low-end MVFR ceiling impacting the terminal by early tomorrow morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. MRY may briefly deteriorate to IFR this morning as the stratus begins to fill in along the immediate coast. Late tonight, MRY is expected to deteriorate to low-end IFR and SNS is expected to deteriorate to low-end MVFR. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Building surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will move east, tightening the pressure gradient and thus increasing the winds. Strong northwesterly breezes with gusts approaching gale force will prevail for most of the period. Wind is the main driver for the Small Craft Advisories; however, significant wave heights begin to build to 10-12 feet towards the end of the period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea