254
FXUS64 KOHX 280703
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
203 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Warm and quiet night across middle TN this morning. Temperatures are
generally in the 70s and skies are mostly clear.

Today we will be under the influence of a suppressed upper ridge
across the deep and mid south. Mostly downward motion is indicated
by afternoon and despite some weak favorable cape to cap ratios,
not expecting any notable convection. On Saturday this will start
to change a bit as the ridge gets further suppressed. More in the
way of favorable lift could enter our northern areas late in the
day as a front starts to move our way from the north. Pops will be
included and continue into Sunday. At that time, organization and
instability look better and we could see some strong to severe
storms. Helicity is very weak and MLL rates are barely 6C so not
expecting any tornadic or hail threats. However, straightline
wind damage will be possible. Right now, we are not outlooked but
that will probably change. The marginal already is located
southward through KY for the period through 12Z Saturday. Otw,
most areas will average around a half inch of rainfall through
Sunday, maybe three quarters of an inch.

Update....a marginal has been issued for our northern third for
what looks like Saturday afternoon/eve. When the day3 gets updated
it will probably include more of our area in a marginal.

For the near term temps, it`s going to heat up pretty good beginning
today. Highs in the 90s can be expected, near 90 on Sunday when the
added clouds and more widespread convection arrives. Overnight lows
in the mid 70s for much of the area west of the Plateau. We will get
a little closer to advisory criteria on Saturday. Will review the
apparent temps carefully to see where we stand. Todays max HI values
look like 98F to 104F west of the Plat. Saturday will be a little
warmer though so stand by for a potential heat advisory, later,
for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

In the extended forecast, Monday looks as though it will be the
choice pick day of the week. At that time, the boundary which
brought us the active Sunday weather, will move to our south with
cooler high pressure in charge to our north. The  thickness regime
also suggest a little bit of thermal troughing at hand. This wont
last however, as a suppressed w-e upper ridge returns. Again though,
convection chances will follow by weeks end  as the ridge quickly
weakens and westerlies return.

For the extended temps, I had mentioned that Monday may be the
choice pick day of the period. It does look like highs only in the
mid 80s to upper 80s or so. Dewpoints will be noticeably lower as
well so it looks like a day to enjoy. However, by mid week, we will
be back up into the mid 90s. Overnight lows Sunday night and Monday
night will be down into the lower to mid 60s. But, look for 70s by
mid week.

Nothing really brewing in the Caribbean or the western Atlantic. A
weak little wave off the Yucatan should remain a non-player. Over
in the eastern Atlantic, a wave to the west of the Cabo Verde
Islands stands a good chance of tropical development. It`s a good
week or so before any north American impact could occur and the
long range mods keep it south, anyhow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions thru 29/06Z. Patchy fog confidence development
impacting SRB/CSV not high. Isolated shwrs/tstms afternoon hours
possible Cumberland Plateau Region, but not enough confidence in
development to mention impacting/vcnty either. Sfc high pressure
apex centered across Great Lakes Region will shift E to New
England coastline by 29/06Z. Sfc light NE winds shifting to
prevailing S/light after 28/14Z with initial SKC conditions
becoming BKN CI with sct CU/AC also expected SRB/CSV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  77  95  77 /  10   0  30  50
Clarksville    92  75  93  75 /  10   0  40  50
Crossville     89  70  86  70 /  20  10  40  50
Columbia       94  74  95  74 /  10   0  30  40
Cookeville     90  72  88  72 /  10  10  40  50
Jamestown      89  72  87  71 /  20  10  40  50
Lawrenceburg   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  30  40
Murfreesboro   94  74  94  75 /  10  10  30  50
Waverly        91  74  94  74 /  10   0  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....JB Wright