608
FXUS64 KOHX 170653
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
153 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Just a touch warmer currently than 24 hours ago. Temperatures across
the mid state are holding in the 70s at this time. Skies are mostly
clear.

The upper level area of higher pressure over the Carolinas will
strengthen today. This will act to push the more active convection
further westward. Thus, pops will still be in play but it will be
notably less active. Following this, we will hang on to a southerly
uniform flow. Some added mid and upper level cloudiness could end up
prevailing on Tuesday and Wednesday. It should be virtually pop free
however as the ridging begins to exhibit some westward extension.

For the near term temps, it will still be a good distance above
normal. However, those aforementioned clouds could prevent the
mercury from reaching the mid to upper 90s range. Latest nbs numbers
suggest lower to mid 90s for highs. Again, those clouds may keep our
temps down a degree or two. Dewpoints should be in the mid to upper
60s so not too terrible. Overnight lows still look warm with 70-75F
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

In the extended forecast, the strong ridge will move from the mid
Atlantic states westward through the mid/deep south from Thursday to
Saturday. Following this, the ridge is expected to further suppress
and weaken with a weak westerly regime returning by early next week.
Perhaps a weak dissipating boundary may attempt to approach on
Monday. Pops will reemerge, though very low.

For the extended temps, its looking very hot for the Thursday
through Saturday period with upper 90s expected. Temps may back down
a degree or two following this as the ridge retreats just a touch.
Overnight lows will remain persistant with lower to mid 70s for most
areas.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The upper high is expected to strengthen over the mid Atlantic
states through the taf period. Though there will be some afternoon
convection again today, the coverage should be a little less and
further west. As a result, will still include vcts for all of the
taf sites again this afternoon. Latest short term mods do not
support a tempo group for the CKV taf as most of the convection
should remain to the west.

Otherwise, look for southerly winds in the afternoon to approach
10kts. An overall increase in upper level cloudiness looks
possible on into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  75  94  73 /  30  10   0   0
Clarksville    91  73  91  71 /  40  20  10   0
Crossville     88  68  86  67 /  20  10   0   0
Columbia       92  72  92  71 /  30  10   0   0
Cookeville     90  72  89  69 /  20  10   0   0
Jamestown      90  70  88  68 /  20  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   91  72  90  71 /  30  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   94  73  93  72 /  20  10   0   0
Waverly        90  72  91  72 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....21