437
FXUS64 KOHX 140510
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1210 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, sky condition, and wind
speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously
forecasted late evening gridded values. Current regional
temperature trends continue to support forecasted overnight
low temperature values. Although a little more PW than this
time yesterday noted in KOHX 14/00Z Sounding, around seasonal
normal values now, and an increase in derived atmospheric
indicies values also noted, current surface riding influences
along with building upper level riding influences from our
southwest, will continue to keep "A Cap on Things" with minimal
cloudiness and no convection/rainfall expected through remainder
of tonight. Some patchy fog continues to be possible mainly near
bodies of water as remainder of nighttime hours progress.
Otherwise, current forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

We have a pretty decent day going on across Middle TN right now.
Temps have climbed into the 80s for almost everyone and without a
southerly boundary layer flow, some mixing is occuring. This is
helping to drop dew points in a few spots and relaxing RH values.
Take advantage. This isn`t going to be the case moving forward into
the weekend.

In the short term, look for some fog development tonight, especially
near bodies of water. I don`t think we`re going to need a dense fog
advisory, but just know visibilities could drop off quickly near
lakes and rivers during your morning commute tomorrow. After any fog
dissipates, we`re looking another decent day with afternoon highs in
the low 90s, like today. Models continue to push an unseasonal front
through the region during the day tomorrow, but it still looks to
wash out before it can cause any rain chances here across the mid-
state. The most likely result from the frontal passage is afternoon
highs a degree or two cooler Saturday than we`ll see today or
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

By the end of the weekend, upper level ridging will re-assert itself
across the eastern half of the US. This is going spike afternoon
highs here in Middle TN. Chances of reaching triple digit air
temperatures aren`t looking great, but highs in the upper 90s
coupled with dew points in the upper 60s is likely going to push a
few areas in triple digit Heat Index values on Sunday. With the
ridge in place, I think rain chances will be very, very small
Sunday, but as the ridge pushes east on Monday, we could see enough
height falls to create a chance of isolated to scattered afternoon
storms. If this occurs, these will fall into the typical summertime
thunderstorm category -- heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible.
Beyond Monday, rain chances fall off once again, but afternoon
temperatures look to remain in the low 90s as summer heat starts to
take hold across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some patchy
fog can`t be ruled out tonight mainly near water ways. MVFR/IFR
possible in any fog. Light winds under 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  71  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    91  68  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     87  64  85  63 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       94  69  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     88  66  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      87  64  85  62 /  10  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   93  69  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   95  69  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        91  69  91  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Mueller