317
FXUS66 KOTX 062132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
232 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected over the next couple days as high
pressure builds over the region. The weekend will be very warm
with afternoon temperatures in the 80s to near 90. A weak weather
system Sunday looks to bring a chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms to the region. Above normal temperatures continues
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: High pressure will deliver a warming
trend through Saturday. The models have trended a little weaker
with the ridge, and thus the corresponding temperature forecast
has trended down a bit more. 850mb temperatures peak near 18-20C
on Saturday, resulting in high temperatures in the mid 80s to near
90F, which is 10-15 degrees above normal. The low temperatures
have trended down a bit as well. A mid level dry slot will pass
over the region tonight into Friday with the dry air lingering
Friday Night. This will allow for efficient radiational cooling
with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s (except upper 50s Wenatchee
area). With the trending down of temperatures, this warm spell
looks similar to what was observed during the May 9-16th warm
spell. Yet the warm weather and high June sun will lead to
minor to moderate heat risk on Saturday, mainly for those
sensitive to the heat. JW

Saturday night through Thursday: The expectation is the upper level
ridge allows max temperatures, both daytime highs and overnight
lows, to peak Saturday/Saturday night. Sunday the ridge axis is
expected to be to the east of Eastern Washington and North Idaho
Sunday as a weather disturbance moves in and displaces it. With this
in mind the forecast is worded in such shape or form to depict
clouds invading sky from the west with the incoming system along
with a mention of showers and thunderstorms with very light, if any
precipitation associated with it for Sunday and Sunday night. Upper
level ridge remains flat and there might be enough lingering low
level moisture to keep a minor slight chance mention of spotty hit
or miss afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over extreme
Northeast Washington and portions of the North Idaho Panhandle
Monday. Upper level 500mb height falls continue on into at least the
middle of the workweek allowing for a slow and gradual cooling trend
accompanying a dry forecast. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak weather system moving across British Columbia
will result in passing high level clouds this evening. Westerly
winds will increase to between 10-15 kts at KEAT around 00Z.
The winds will switch out of the north and northwest behind this
wave on Friday. For most of the region the north winds will be
less than 10 kts, except for the Okanogan Valley (Omak) where
terrain channeling will allow for breezy north winds (10-20 kts
with gusts up to 30 kts). Winds may also briefly be breezy for
Ephrata and Moses Lake Friday morning. JW

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through at least
Saturdeay Night.


-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  81  50  84  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  51  78  48  81  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        51  77  50  81  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       58  86  58  90  63  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       43  80  45  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      48  76  45  79  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        53  76  52  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     54  87  53  91  61  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      56  86  59  89  65  86 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           53  85  54  90  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$