770
FXUS63 KPAH 252307
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
607 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon
  with dry conditions expected tonight.

- Chances for widespread heavy rain will ramp up Thursday night
  through Sunday, as the remnants of Hurricane Helene interact
  with an upper-level storm system.

- The heaviest rain is expected from late Thursday night through
  Friday evening. Forecast rainfall in this period currently
  ranges from around 2 inches along I-64 to 3-4 inches in far
  southern portions of the region. The rains will become lighter
  and more isolated through the weekend.

- The Quad State will begin to dry out on Tuesday as a cold
  front passes. Cool, fall-like conditions are forecast for
  next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

This afternoon, an upper level low is moving directly across
the area with surface high pressure nudging in from the west. A
few isolated showers have developed across SEMO this afternoon
as expected. Most of the night is forecast to be dry. The
National Hurricane Center forecasts now Hurricane Helene to move
across the Panhandle of Florida late Thursday, and into the
Tennessee Valley by early Friday. By Saturday, the upper low and
remnant circulation of Helene will merge together and meander
across the area. Confidence on the exact placement of these
features is still low and some changes to the forecast seems
probable.

WPC QPF hasn`t changed too much from the previous forecast with
storm total rainfall ranging from 3-4 inches with some
localized areas possibly seeing upwards of 4+ inches. The
heaviest rainfall is still expected late Thursday night through
Friday. The general thinking from the previous shift of taking
the current QPF with a grain of salt still stands. The terrain
across the Tennessee Valley will have an impact on weakening the
remnant circulation. However, there will be plenty of upper
level ascent to support periods of heavy rainfall.

Ensemble support for gusty winds has increased with now 50-70%
chance of 35kt wind gusts across northern portions of the region
Friday afternoon and evening. As a result winds in the forecast
have increased with wind gusts in the 25-30 mph range across
many locations. The strong pressure gradient that is expected
across the area may mean that wind gusts may need to be bumped
up in later forecasts. Again the best time frame for these winds
will be Friday afternoon and evening.

Showers will continue through the weekend as the system meanders
across the area. Coverage of showers will begin to decrease late
Saturday and especially on Sunday. The system finally gets
kicked out early next week as a strong trough digs into the
northern plains. Northwest flow aloft will result in cooler
temperatures with highs in the upper 60`s to near 70 on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Generally expecting VFR conditions through this TAF issuance.
The exception will be late tonight into early Thursday morning
when some ground fog may develop again at CGI/MVN. Winds will
gradually increase through the day Thursday before the much
gustier winds arrive Friday with the remnants of Hurricane
Helene.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC