634
FXUS63 KPAH 261123
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
623 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Higher uncertainty in the forecast for today with storms
  possible. Some may be strong to severe with damaging wind the
  main threat.

- Brief respite from the heat today and Thursday.

- Hot again Saturday with heat indices around 105.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

There is higher uncertainty in the forecast today as a shortwave
trof moves through aloft. CAMS are not really in agreement and
aren`t doing the best job with the convection that is currently
ongoing across the area. The HRRR looks to be the best initialized
so far and so have leaned towards that for the forecast PoPs today.
There might be a bit of a lull this morning then convection picks
back up this afternoon. This lull could be disrupted though by some
ongoing convection across northwest MO that might make it to SEMO
this morning (if it holds together). Storms today will be pulsey in
nature due to weak shear but strong instability. Damaging wind would
be the main threat for stronger to severe storms. Enjoy the cooler
temperatures today and tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 80s
today as a front moves through in the afternoon/evening.

Thursday will continue to feel better as we get a brief break from
the heat and humidity with drier conditions and highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Friday the heat starts coming back as temperatures climb
back up into the lower 90s. Saturday will be another hot and humid
day with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices around 105.
This may be mitigated some though by convection which starts off
Saturday morning and picks up through the day. A front is progged to
move through Saturday night into Sunday. Storm chances sag south on
Sunday and we get another brief respite from the heat with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Heat comes back by Tuesday however with highs
back in the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Very difficult forecast this period, with showers and storms
ongoing and more expected through the day. No models are
handling the convection well at the moment, so confidence is
rather low. Heavier downpours at the terminals may reduce
visibility at times. Cigs are expected to drop into MVFR
territory later today. Winds are modest out of the southwest
until the front moves through and shifts them around to the
northwest later this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...SHAWKEY