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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
280 FXUS65 KPIH 271140 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID Issued by National Weather Service Boise ID 540 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night. Early morning satellite imagery shows a departing warm front into Montana and Wyoming as a cold front begins to drop SE out of NRN Idaho and the PacNW. Isolated showers and thunderstorms ongoing this morning will continue to shift east as best chances for convection later today remain confined to the Montana, Utah, and Wyoming border regions with predominantly dry conditions expected elsewhere throughout the day. As this cold front progresses east a drier and colder air mass will shift overhead as a H5 trough continues to track east along the Canadian border. Given the drier conditions today, strong winds at 700 mb around 35-45 kts will mix down to the surfacesupporting winds around 20-40 mph with gusts to 40-60 mph, locally stronger across the Arco/Mud Lake Desert and Upper Snake Plain in that 60-70 mph range. A WIND ADVISORY remains in effect for this region through 9 PM MDT this evening as lighter winds return overnight. Under the influence of dry, zonal/NW flow behind today`s cold front, seasonably cool weather will return through friday with highs in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 30s/40s/50s. Winds on Friday will be much lighter than Thursday given lighter winds aloft, with sustained winds staying less than 20 mph, MacKay .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursdat. Following a cooler end to the work week, temperatures will be on the rise for the weekend as a H5 ridge of high pressure shifts east over the NRN Rockies. As a result, high temperatures on Saturday will be around 8-15 degrees warmer than Friday in the 80s to mid 90s as sustained winds remain light. While similarly wam conditions will continue into Sunday, and approaching H5 trough out of the NE Pacific will help to reintroduce breezy winds for Sunday and Monday in addition to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds each day will peak during the afternoon hours with gusts to around 30-50 mph. PWATs will remain less than 0.75" through this timeframe, supporting a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. A warm front on Sunday followed by a cold front on Monday will be the main drivers of convection as the best chances for activity remain farther north and east with the driest conditions extpected around the Magic and Treasure Valley region. As this H5 trough departs east onto the NRN Plains for Tuesday, isolated showers and storms will remainpossible around Clark, Fremont, and Teton Counties as dry conditions return elsewhere regionwide. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be seasonably cool in the 70s to low 80s, aided by a NW/zonal flow pattern with breezy winds each afternoon. There is high confidence on a well-defined H% ridge of high pressure shifting overhead midweek next week which will lead to warmer and continued dry conditions heading toward Independence Day. Highs will retirn to the 80s to low/mid 90s as dry conditions continue through next weekend. MaxKay && .AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday. Predominant VFR and dry conditions are expected for Thursday as a cold front tracks east across SRN Idaho. As a result, strong winds are expected which will be strongest during the daytime hours around 15-30 kts with gusts 25-45 kts. Best chances for isolated shower and thunderstorm activity today will be along the Montana and Wyoming border regions but with less than a 10% chance of reaching KDIJ, have maintained dry conditions at all terminals today. Lighter winds will return overnight tonight and continue through Friday and Saturday under the increasing influence of high pressure. MacKay && .FIRE WEATHER... As a cold front tracks east across SRN Idaho today, string winds are expected regionwide as best chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms shifts to being confined along the Montana, Wyoming, and Utah border regions. Winda are expected to peak around 20-40 mph with gusts 40-60 mph, locally strong along FWZ 410. Afternoon humidities will also bottom out today in the single digits and teens across portions of FWZ 410, 425, and 476. Winds will subside this evening as dry condtions reurn through Saturday under the inbcreasing influence of high pressure. Following cooler conditions on Thursday and Friday, high temperatures will be about 8-15 degrees warmer this weekend. Our next system remains on track to arrive Sunday into Monday with isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms and a return to breezy winds. Best chances for actiovity will remain farther north and east with the driest conditions expected around FWZ 425. With PWATs remaining less than 0.75 inch during this evet, we may end up seeing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms as well. Dry condiitions will return Tuesday outside of isolated showers and storms around FWZ 411 with seasonable cool temperatures expected both Monday and Tuesday. There is high confidence on a well defined H5 ridge of high pressure shifting overhead midweek next week which will lead to warmer and dry conditions heading toward Independence Day. Highs will return to the 80s to low/mid 90s as dry conditions continue through next weekend. MacKay && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052>054-067. && $$