257
FXUS65 KPIH 250914
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
314 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.
Little change in short term period. Strong southerly flow aloft
today with extremely warm temperatures with highs generally in the
mid to upper 80s in low elevations and 70s mountains. A weak upper
level short wave and cold front will push through Thursday with
temperatures about 5 to 8 degrees colder than Wednesday but still
well above seasonal normals. Lows will be mainly in the 40s and
50s overnight tonight and 30s and 40s Thursday night with some 30s
in mountain valleys. Will see some breezy conditions in the
central mountains in the 20 to 25 mph range and also southern
highlands today. Thursday the 20 to 30 mph gusts will mainly be in
the Upper Snake River Plain in the Arco Desert region behind the
cold front. No precipitation is expected.
GK

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.
Will start a rapid warmup again quickly Friday into Saturday as
zonal flow aloft quickly turns southwesterly again. Low elevation
highs by Saturday back in the mid to upper 80s. another weak upper
level wave will slide to the north Sunday and will again see
slight cooling of about 5 degrees on Sunday and another 5 degrees
on Monday with model blends showing highs closer to normal Monday
in the lower to mid 70s low elevations and 60s mountains. But
overall temperatures remain above normal all the way through next
Wednesday. No precipitation is forecast through the long term
period continuing the long stretch of dry conditions. Impacts
generally non existent through the forecast period.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies expected to continue today with only impacts some
winds near 10 knots this afternoon at PIH, IDA and DIJ out of
southwest with gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range. Will have similar
conditions Thursday with slightly stronger winds in the afternoon.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching upper level low will increase the
southwesterly air flow, which will bring in warm air and increase
wind to what would normally be critical thresholds, especially in
the central Idaho mountains, in the lower elevations from Clayton to
Challis to Ellis in the Salmon-Challis NF Zone 476. However, this
ares does not have critical fuels, so no Red Flag Warnings will be
issued for today. After a dry cold front passage this late afternoon
or evening, the humidity is expected to rise and temperatures to
cool slightly. Wind will also be more westerly and even
northwesterly for at least a day after. Warming and drying returns
on Fri, with another peak in temperature and low in humidity on Sat
before another dry cold front sweeps through Sat night/Sun. Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$