449
FXUS65 KPIH 221957
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
157 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. Hot! Temperatures
today hover around 90, but surge Sunday into the mid 90s for many
areas under a strong upper ridge. Daytime highs would put much of
the Snake Plain on Sunday under the threat of a Heat Advisory, but
overnight lows drop off significantly, and generally stay at or
below the 65 degree threshold for temperature recovery. Thus we`ll
hold off on that headline for now. The other impact in the short
term will be winds Sunday afternoon. Current forecast max winds
develop across the Arco Desert just at or slightly above lower
thresholds for a Wind Advisory, but the window is short, only
about 4 hours. Elsewhere, winds are expected to only reach about
15-20 mph, certainly breezy but below even Lake Wind Advisory
thresholds for American Falls Reservoir. Therefore we`ll hold off
on this headline for now, as well. DMH

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.
Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures will persist
well into next week as high pressure pushes daytime highs 10 to 15
degrees above climatological norms. Widespread highs will reach into
the low to mid-90s across the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley,
as well as low elevations further south, with 60s and 70s in the
mountains and 80s in mountain valleys. Elevated upper-level flow
will support breezy surface conditions over the Snake Plain daily
each afternoon throughout the week, where sustained winds will reach
or exceed 20 mph and gusts will range 30 to 40 mph. An upper low
will move onshore into the PacNW on Thursday with limited moisture
predominately remaining further north in the ID panhandle, although
chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will exist. The
National Blend does include low-end PoPs up to around 30% generally
south and east of the Snake Plain. Significantly dry conditions will
be tough to overcome and models show dry air rebounding quickly on
Saturday. The good news is that this system will bring temperatures
back down into the upper 70s and 80s for much of our low elevations
or within several degrees of normal. Cropp


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions forecast for the weekend timeframe with mostly clear
skies and dry conditions under high pressure. Winds will be variable
at times and range light to breezy to around 15 kts, increasing on
Sunday to around 15 to 25 kts. Cropp

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures will persist through
the first half of next week with daytime highs running 10 to 15
degrees above normal. Minimum humidity will range 10 to 20 percent
through mid-week. Furthermore, elevated upper-level flow will
support breezy surface conditions over the Snake Plain daily each
afternoon throughout the week, with sustained winds reaching or
exceeding 20 mph and gusts ranging 30 to 40 mph. A system will bring
a brief reprieve Thursday through Friday along with slight chances
for isolated showers and thunderstorms, dropping temperatures back
to within a few degrees of normal and helping to increase min RH a
bit. Cropp

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$