957
FXUS61 KRLX 270631
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
231 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses overnight into Thursday, taking its
showers and storms with it. Another cold front crosses this
weekend, with additional storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 PM Wednesday...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467 was allowed to expire, as the
severe weather threat associated with a mid/upper-level short
wave trough and surface cold front waned after sunset. The last
line of showers and waning thunderstorms was slicing through
central WV late this evening, and will push through the rest of
the forecast area during the overnight hours, save for light
showers or drizzle lingering in and near the mountains into
Thursday.

As of 830 PM Wednesday...

With round two of the severe threat appearing to set up east
the Ohio River, have canceled Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
west of it.

Aside from lingering low clouds a little longer and farther west
on Thursday, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 815 PM Wednesday...

The threat for the strongest thunderstorms appeared to be
shifting east of the Ohio River.

As of 505 PM Wednesday...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467 in effect until 10 PM to account
for ongoing convection in central WV, which has caused tree
damage and produced close to one-inch size hail in Kanawha
County, and the potential convective development farther west,
more closely tied forcing associated with with mid-level short
wave trough.

As of 1237 PM Wednesday...

Showers and storms from this morning will continue to gradually lift
north and east of the area. An area of clearing in the cloud cover
has occurred across parts of our south and west behind this band,
and mesoanalysis and satellite images indicate increasing
instability and some cu starting to develop in the area of clearing.
Showers and storms will ramp up this afternoon and evening out ahead
of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front in the increasingly
unstable atmosphere, with the possibility of a few storms becoming
strong to severe. Model soundings indicate the potential for 2500
J/Kg cape out ahead of this feature, and with strengthening deep
unidirectional shear, linear organization of storms is possible,
along with the possibility of pulse severe storms, with a damaging
wind threat. In addition, with freezing levels around 12k feet, some
marginally severe hail is possible. In addition, with PW values
already around 1.7 inches and progged to rise to close to 2 inches,
heavy downpours will accompany any storms, and although we are quite
dry, a localized water issue cant be completely ruled out in poor
drainage/low lying areas.

Frontal boundary will clear mountains during the day Thursday.
Additional showers and storms will be possible Thursday across the
higher terrain from any lingering moisture, but most of the area
should dry out and be cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb above normal
for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms
are also once again possible, with a bit better chances in
Virginia, although most of the region will remain dry.

An upper level short wave will then provide a chance of showers
and thunderstorms area wide Friday night.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms even more
for Saturday into Sunday. Models have a cold front pushing
through late Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather behind the front
on Monday. Models still have some disagreement on the amount of
cooler air for Monday, but temperatures should be either near
normal or below normal for this time of year.

The cooler weather will be rather brief, as the high pressure
system slides eastward allowing for southerly winds and above
normal temperatures by Tuesday afternoon. Dry weather should
prevail on Tuesday, but the southerly wind flow and another
approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

Thunderstorms have all but subsided and precipitation is moving
eastward with a cold front crossing through the area. Low
clouds and fog will form as this activity subsides, with MVFR
conditions expected across a bulk of the area. IFR to VLIFR
expected in the mountains and foothills. The fog will lift
after the dawn, and then the clouds gradually lifting shortly
there after. VFR conditions will then take over from afternoon
on as drier air arrives ahead of high pressure to the north.

Winds of westerly or northerly direction will slack off and
remain light and variable to calm through the morning. Light
northerly to northeasterly flow will pick up by afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers diminishing may differ.
Location and intensity of low stratus and fog this morning may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 06/27/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    L    M    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    H    L    L    M    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC