Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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649 FXUS63 KSGF 270453 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1153 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area, especially Friday into next week. - Low chances (15-25%) for a few showers across the northern portions of the area Thursday night into Friday morning, most locations will likely remain dry. - Another storm system expected Friday night through Saturday night bringing chances (30 to 60%) for showers and storms to the area at times. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A weak cold front moved through the area earlier this morning. Behind the front northerly winds are occurring this afternoon with some gusts up to 25 mph occurring at times. A few isolated showers will remain possible across far south central Missouri but most, if not all, locations will remain dry. Temperatures currently range from the upper 70s across the eastern Ozarks to the middle 80s across southeastern Kansas early this afternoon. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 80s across central Missouri to the upper 80s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri. Highs will warm into the middle 80s to around 90 on Thursday afternoon. Heat index values this afternoon and Thursday afternoon will top out in the upper 80s to the middle to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The upper level ridge will build east towards the area on Friday. An upper level disturbance will move across the Plains north of the ridge of high pressure Thursday night into Friday. Convection will be possible across the Plains with the disturbance with the better chances for showers and storms remaining northwest of the area. There is a low chance (15-25%) that few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder could affect location mainly north of Highway 54 late Thursday night into Friday morning. Most locations should remain dry though as this disturbance will be weakening if it makes it into the area. A warmer air mass will move east over the area on Friday and Saturday as highs warm into the lower to middle 90s both afternoons. Heat index values will also increase as humid conditions occur with values in the upper 90s to near 105 both days. Another upper level trough will move across the plains on Friday night into Saturday. Additional showers and storms will be possible there are still questions on how far south the storms will be able to make it into the area Friday night into Saturday morning with the ridge over the region. A front will then move south through the area later Saturday into Sunday bringing additional chances for showers and storms to the area. There could be the potential for a few strong storms with this activity. The ensemble model members then show the ridge building back over the region next week with continued hot and humid conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light out of the northeast, turning more easterly and eventually southeasterly through the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Nelson