Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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599 FXUS63 KSGF 312339 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 639 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms through tonight. There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) of flash flooding with localized rainfall amounts up to 3-4". - Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 MCV is currently on the border of SE KS and SW MO and will slowly continue pushing northeast. Right now, no imminent threat for flooding is occurring. Though, nuisance flooding could occur especially near the center of the MCV over in SW MO. Temperatures across the area have stayed upper 60s to lower 70s with overcast skies. Tonight, as rain continues to push east, there is a 20-40% chance of visibilities lower than 3 SM according to the SREF. Therefore, patchy fog could form in areas where cloud cover can disperse the quickest (SW MO), thought confidence is still low at this time. Low temperatures will be in the lower 60s tonight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The long term forecast will continue to feature intermittent rain chances through the start of next week thanks to a series of mid- level shortwaves that move through the area. Though, no all day washouts are expected. As mentioned previously, hot and humid temperatures are on the way for the start of June with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. With a moist airmass in place, pop up thunderstorms will be possible each day. Model PWAT values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches will be in place next week which would be just above the 90th percentile for our area during this time of the year. It`ll definitely start to get that summer feel here in southern Missouri. As far as how much rain will fall, LPMM for Saturday into Monday has the bulk of the rain falling over southeastern MO with amounts topping out near 1 to 2 inches. Southwestern MO has much lower QPF amounts of less than 0.5 of an inch through the weekend. Saturday-Sunday: Saturday will end up being a nice day once the clouds/lingering rain showers clear out. Highs will reach the lower 80s by the afternoon with mostly clear skies expected. Saturday night we will see a break in the rain with lows in the lower 60s. A shortwave moves through northern MO on Sunday and will bring our next round of showers and thunderstorms. Right now, not expecting any severe weather to occur, but there could be a few rumbles of thunder throughout the day. Best chances for rain will be in the afternoon with a 20-30% west of HWY 65. Per the previous discussion, CIPS/CSU analogs do have a signal for potential severe weather to occur over the area Monday/Tuesday. This most likely is associated with a cold front that will move through overnight Monday into Tuesday. Still too early to determine exact hazards and locations that will be affected, more updates to come later in the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Rain will continue to push east of the TAF sites this evening. IFR ceilings are expected to return tonight, with fog possible at KBBG and especially KJLN. Improving conditions will then be noted through the day Saturday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Titus