280
FXUS63 KSGF 311046
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
546 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms today into tonight.
  There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) of flash flooding with
  localized rainfall amounts up to 3-4".

- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Radar mosaics and satellite imagery depict several MCVs spinning
through the region early this morning, supporting scattered
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. This activity will
gradually shift east through the Missouri Ozarks today, and
with weak upper-level flow, progression will be rather slow.
Lightning potential appears highest generally along and south of
the I-44 corridor, though with meager instability of 500-1000
J/kg and weak shear, severe weather is not expected.

A moisture plume will continue to surge into the area today,
contributing to PWATs in the 1.4-1.7 inch range. The abundant
moisture and slow storm motions will contribute to a localized
flash flooding threat through tonight. The 00Z HREF LPMM--which
often does a good job of capturing the higher end rainfall
potential--depicts pockets of 2-3 inches of rainfall through
tonight. For what it`s worth, the HREF max shows the potential
for 3-4 inches as a reasonable worst-case scenario. Notably,
recent runs of several CAMs depict coverage of the moderate to
heavy rain being more scattered in nature, so today could very
well be a case where only a few localized areas receive several
inches of rain, and others not much.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Guidance continues to suggest mid-level shortwave energy
shifting east of the forecast area Saturday morning into the
afternoon hours, and with it, decreasing rain chances. Showers
may linger the longest across the eastern Ozarks, where we have
maintained 20-40% chances into the afternoon.

The main story for early to mid next week will be the warm and
increasingly humid conditions. Ensembles depict the synoptic
upper- level pattern becoming quasi-zonal Sunday into Monday,
with a few weak embedded shortwaves transiting the Plains. With
a continued moist airmass, pop-up thunderstorms and decaying
MCSs will remain possible through this period. The latest NBM
PoPs are highest (50-80%) Monday with a passing surface front.

LREF clusters generally agree on the upper-level flow pattern
becoming more amplified by the middle to end of the week. Of
note is a more prominent shortwave passing through the central
CONUS Tuesday that could bring additional thunderstorm chances
to the area in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. While it is far
too early to latch onto specifics or any one solution, CIPS and
CSU machine learning products do indicate at least some
chance for severe weather. This potential will have to be better
resolved in future forecast packages.

Looking ahead to the latter part of the week, ensembles indicate
broad upper-level ridging to amplify over the western/central
CONUS, though there remain fairly large discrepancies over the
exact longitudinal positioning. Ultimately, where this ridge
sets up and how the pattern evolves will have significant
implications on the sensible weather for our area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Scattered showers ongoing at the start of the TAF period will
continue through much of the day. Some showers may be locally
heavy and reduce visibilities below 3 miles. There will likely
be a few isolated thunderstorms mixed in with the showers across
the region, but confidence in them impacting a terminal site
was too low to include in the current TAFs.

Ceilings will degrade from VFR to MVFR this morning and then
eventually to IFR and possibly LIFR throughout the day.
Southeast winds this morning and afternoon will gradually turn
to the west after 00Z through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio