682
FXUS64 KSHV 252011
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
311 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Heat Advisory criteria (heat indices of 105-110 degrees) has been
met as of mid-afternoon over all but the Wrn sections of E TX,
but this too should verify over the next couple of hours once
temps top out in the mid to upper 90s. As expected, limited mixing
though over Srn AR/NCntrl LA has maintained mid 70s dewpoints
over these areas, as low level moisture pooling continues farther
to the E across the Lower MS Valley along the W side of a
stationary front that persists from the Mid-South region into
NCntrl MS/SW and Srn Al. This has resulted in heat indices near
110 degrees over these areas, and may briefly reach Warning
criteria before daytime heating diminishes late this afternoon.
Will allow the Heat Advisory to ride as is for the entire region
through 00Z Wednesday. All remains quiet too as the afternoon
visible satellite has maintained a relatively flat cu field over
the region. The exception has been over ECntrl LA/SCntrl AR where
the cu is a bit more agitated, with isolated convection possible
over these areas through 00Z before diminishing with the setting
sun.

Much if not all of the overnight hours should remain quiet across
the region tonight, although the transition to NW flow aloft may
yield some unsettled weather courtesy of shortwave energy progged
to drop SE into the region late, along the Ern periphery of the
upper ridge centered from the Desert SW into W TX. In fact,
various short term progs suggest that convection will initiate by
early evening over NW OK along the lead shortwave trough axis, but
should gradually weaken through late evening with reduced forcing.
However, the GFS is a lone outlier dropping a potential MCS SE
into the region by and after daybreak Wednesday, maintaining the
convection through much of the day. Not quite buying this solution
yet given the lack of other model support, with the potentially
more feasible compromise in solutions suggesting that convection
will be later to develop over Nrn AR Wednesday morning along a
weak sfc front and attendant shortwave trough that will drop SE
through the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley. Again, considerable
timing variabilities exist with convection eventually building S
into the region by afternoon, which could impede heating and
potential Heat Advisory criteria being met again.

After collaborating with adjacent WFO`s, have opted to defer the
issuance of a Heat Advisory to the mid shift, as hopefully better
model agreement will come into play with regards to the convection
timing. Do believe that one will be needed for at least portions
of E TX/N LA, but would rather avoid potentially flip flopping the
forecast with the potential heat headlines. Did maintain chance
pops though for Srn AR/N LA, which could linger during the evening
before diminishing. This convection could reinforce the sfc bndry
SSW into the area by Thursday, which would only result in
additional moisture pooling over the region just as the upper
ridge begins to expand back S into AR/LA by afternoon. Thus, heat
products will likely be needed again areawide Thursday, with some
consolation that isolated to scattered convection will remain
possible near the stationary front.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The ridge aloft will continue expanding E across the Lower MS
Valley Thursday night, but remain relatively flat before
amplifying further this weekend into much of next week. Thus, the
extreme heat is on as more expansive areas of triple digit temps
are expected through the remainder of the long term period. Heat
Headlines will be needed through the remainder of the period, with
very limited relief expected at night as temps struggle to fall
to/just below 80 degrees. Still can`t rule out the potential for
isolated diurnal convection over portions of the area, but believe
that wetting rains will be hard to come by and will do very little
to the continued drying conditions in place.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR through the rest of today and for
most of the overnight with some MVFR cigs around daybreak. There
may be a chance for some convection early, based on the GFS/ECMWF
models. Others all agree for more of a chance later in the day
and into the evening/overnight Wed as a weak backdoor cool front
pushes across S AR. S/SW winds will prevail this cycle and may
become varied from the N if good amount of rain can help cool the
air. Downpours could bring down gusty winds alongside. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  97  77  96 /  10  20  20  20
MLU  78  96  73  93 /  10  40  30  40
DEQ  75  95  73  93 /  10  40  20  10
TXK  80  98  75  96 /  10  30  20  10
ELD  75  94  71  91 /  10  40  30  20
TYR  79  97  77  98 /   0  20  20  10
GGG  78  96  77  96 /   0  20  20  20
LFK  76  96  77  97 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...24