848
FXUS64 KSHV 291644 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1144 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The cu field has become extensive across the region late this
morning, as a very humid air mass persists along the SW low level
flow on the backside of sfc ridging anchored over the Nrn Gulf.
The late morning visible satellite imagery does reveal some
agitated cu over portions of Deep E TX and NCntrl LA, with a few
areas of sprinkled noted on radar over these areas, although they
do not persist for long. These should be the favored areas for
isolated to widely scattered convection as we move deeper into the
afternoon, along a weak inverted trough aloft that extends from
SE TX into S LA and Cntrl MS. Have expanded slight chance pops a
bit father N across N LA based on the developing cu towers on
satellite, although most areas should remain dry, with any
convection diminishing shortly by sunset.

Despite the extensive cu field in place, 16Z temps are similar to
what was observed 24 hrs ago, with max temps this afternoon expected
to near what was observed Friday afternoon, in the mid 90s to near
100 degrees. As the cu field gradually scatters out through the
afternoon, should see some mixing of dewpoints as well, although
resultant heat indices should mostly remain in the high end of
Heat Advisory criteria. Have held on to the Excessive Heat Warning
through 01Z this evening as some patchy warning criteria (heat
indices greater than 110 degrees) could be observed, especially
in the more urbanized areas where wet bulb globe temps should
exceed 90 degrees.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A strengthening upper level ridge over the Southern Plains will
continue bring hot and humid conditions to the region today. A
more southerly component to the surface winds will allow more Gulf
moisture to advect into the region. The resulting increase in
humidity should result in peak heat index values above 110 degrees
F in most locations this afternoon. Dewpoints are expected to be
higher today than on Friday, and maximum heat index values were
already above warning criteria across much of the area, especially
across Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas. Therefore, the
Excessive Heat Warning for the entire forecast area still appears
on track. The more direct onshore flow should also provide a
better opportunity for diurnally-driven sea breeze convection to
move into the area this afternoon. However, rain chances should
remain confined to areas southeast of a line from Lufkin TX to
Monroe LA.

On Sunday, a weak disturbance trapped underneath the upper level
ridge will move southeast across Oklahoma and towards the
ArkLaTex. This disturbance will also help to push a weak backdoor
cold front into the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
should develop along and ahead of this frontal boundary during the
day Sunday. Most of the area, with the exception of portions of
east Texas west of a line from Mount Vernon to Lufkin should see
at least some chance for rain. The greatest convective coverage
will likely be across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and
Northeast Louisiana. This will likely be our best chances for
widespread rainfall during the next week. However, coverage of any
wetting rains will remain spotty at best.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

On Monday, the weak disturbance will move across the ArkLaTex
while the center of the upper level ridge moves overhead. Strong
instability should overcome the strength of the ridge during the
afternoon for more scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon across
Louisiana and Deep East Texas. Convection coverage may be quite
high, especially towards Central Louisiana, where the sea breeze,
the frontal boundary, and greatest moisture availability will be
co-located.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to remain mostly
diurnally-driven next week with showers and thunderstorms
developing near or shortly after midday and then dissipating in
the early evening. Rain chances for Tuesday through Thursday will
generally remain confined to our southernmost counties/parishes.
By the end of the week, the medium range models suggest the upper
level ridge may break down and redevelop over Colorado and New
Mexico. This should allow northwesterly flow aloft to return,
which may allow for a cold front and better chances for rain to
move back into the region.

Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will persist through the
long-term period. Daytime high temperatures should continue to be
well into the 90s areawide and will likely be in the middle 90s to
near 100 degrees F Tuesday through Friday. The NBM still suggests
the highest probabilities of daytime highs exceeding the century
mark should be Tuesday. Peak heat index values will somewhat
variable each day, but confidence is high that Heat Advisories
will be needed nearly areawide for Tuesday through Friday.
Excessive Heat Warnings may also be needed for some locations.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the 29/12z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing some
lower clouds across the region this morning. As a result, a few
terminals, KSHV, KTYR, KGGG have dropped to MVFR CIGs while the
rest remain VFR. Should see all terminals return to VFR by around
or before 29/15z. There still remains a chance for some VCTS for
our southern terminals and KMLU this afternoon, however,
confidence still is not high enough to mention it at this time.
Winds should remain light and generally out of the south through
this period. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  81  97  79 /  20   0  20  10
MLU  97  78  96  76 /  20  10  30  10
DEQ  97  75  94  73 /   0  10  30  10
TXK  98  80  97  76 /   0  10  30  10
ELD  96  77  95  73 /   0   0  40  10
TYR  98  78  97  78 /  10   0  10  10
GGG  97  78  96  77 /  10   0  20  10
LFK  96  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-
     051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-
     097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...33