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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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029 FXUS64 KSHV 021750 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1052 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 No wholesale updates to the forecast package for this afternoon are required at this time. Air temperatures are warming right on schedule, and dew points remain within the expected range as of the 16Z hour. At this time, no changes to the existing heat products are anticipated. However, careful attention will be paid to the heat indices across southwest Arkansas to determine whether or not Warning criteria are reached. If this looks imminent or begins to occur, a decision to upgrade may need to be made. Short range high resolution guidance continues to illustrate the subsidence effects of the ridging overhead inhibiting the development of widespread convection across the ArkLaTex this afternoon. However, given the abundant heat and oppressive moisture, some heat-induced pop up showers and storms are not out of the question entirely, particularly in the Toledo Bend areas of Texas and Louisiana. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the 02/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has developed early this afternoon over all but portions of SCntrl AR/NE LA along and W of a stationary bndry extending from WCntrl and Srn AR into NE LA. Very isolated convection can not be ruled out this afternoon over Cntrl LA and adjacent sections of Deep E TX, but precludes mention for VCSH in for the LFK terminal attm. Any convection and cu field should diminish by sunset, with SKC expected overnight. A scattered stratocu field should again develop by mid to late morning, lifting into areas of cu by afternoon. A weak seabreeze should develop during the afternoon Wednesday and spread NNW into portions of Deep E TX/Cntrl and NE LA, just beyond the end of the 18Z TAF period. SSE winds 4-7kts this afternoon will diminish to 3-6kts after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 99 82 100 81 / 10 0 10 0 MLU 98 78 98 77 / 0 0 20 0 DEQ 96 77 98 76 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 98 80 100 80 / 10 0 10 0 ELD 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 10 0 TYR 98 80 99 79 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 98 79 99 78 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 98 77 96 77 / 10 10 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-060-061- 071>073. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059- 070. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ006. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>005-010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 AVIATION...15