Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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118 FXUS64 KSJT 241758 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The 500mb subtropical ridge across the southwest and south central United States will continue to provide subsidence across west central Texas today through tonight. Low to mid level moisture will continue to be limited across northwest Texas as a result. Hot and dry conditions will persist this afternoon with temperatures in the middle to upper 90s across most of the CWA except across portions of the Concho Valley where highs will likely reach at least 100 degrees and across portions of the Big Country where highs will approach 100 degrees. Temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The summer doldrums for West Central Texas will be the main weather story for the next 7 to 10 days, with generally hot and dry conditions prevailing across the area. The upper level ridge axis centered over Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma for the start and middle of the week will gradually weaken slightly for the weekend and then recenter closer to the lour Mississippi Valley for early next week. That brief weakening over the weekend may be enough to allow a few storms to sneak into the Panhandle and Oklahoma and then perhaps south of the Red River into the northern Big Country. Will continue the slight chance of POPs mentioned for Saturday and Sunday. The hot temperatures will continue with readings generally 98 to 103 across West Central Texas. Will flirt with Heat Advisory for Tuesday and Wednesday in a few counties across the Big Country and Heartland, where dewpoints are forecasted to be a little higher and drive heat index values up a few extra degrees. Evapotranspiration (pulling moisture up into the atmosphere from moist soils and green plants) will play a role in this so there is a little uncertainty is just how effective this will be. Will hold off on a Heat Advisory for now and get a better feel for how dewpoints react the next few afternoons. As the ridge weakens slightly over the weekend, it may be enough to allow highs to drop back closer to seasonal normals in the 95 to 100 range. They likely start to climb back above the 100 degree mark as the ridge re-strengthens next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24 hours. South-southeast winds will occasionally gust to around 15 knots through the evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 78 99 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 77 101 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 75 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 76 97 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 78 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 74 96 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...61 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...42