248
FXUS64 KSJT 271700
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1200 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

First, the heat will continue this afternoon with the upper level
ridge almost directly across the area. Some storms across the Red
River Valley will produce more high clouds across the area than in
previous days, but most of this will be gone for the afternoon.
Temperatures may lag previous days by a few degrees in the morning
but should have time to catch up during the afternoon. Low level
moisture isn`t going anywhere so either temperatures or heat
index values will hit the 105 mark or higher across most of the
Concho Valley, Big Country, and Heartland like the last several
days.

Second, have added some small POPs across the eastern portions of
the area for this afternoon. Outflow boundary from yesterdays
convection moved west into central Texas, along with weak
northernly flow aloft along the edge of the center of upper level
ridge. CAMs like the HRRR have shown some very isolated
convection for a brief few hours mainly east of an Abilene to
brady to Junction line. Odds are low but worth mentioning and have
added some a mention of isolated storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue under an upper ridge into
next week. Temperatures may fall a degree or two Saturday into
Monday, then warm a degree or two, Tuesday into Wednesday. A Heat
advisory again expected Friday over the Big Country, Concho
Valley and Heartland, with heat indices in the 105 to 108 range.
Winds will increase slightly, becoming gusty at times this
weekend, as a lee trough develops in West Texas.

The upper ridge may weaken towards the 4th of July, and along
with a weak cold front July 5, may allow the development of
isolated thunderstorms. This remains beyond the 7 day forecast,
and confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.
Southeast winds of 8 to 12 knots will decrease to 10 knots or
less by mid to late evening. Expect south winds to increase to 10
to 15 knots by mid to late evening Friday. Isolated showers are
possible this afternoon, mainly at KBBD, but confidence is too low
to include in the current TAFs.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     79 102  79 100 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  78 104  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    75  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   77 100  76  99 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  79 104  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       75  99  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       76  98  76  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-
Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...Daniels