163
FXUS62 KTBW 290631
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
231 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Typical summer pattern of warm, muggy days with a chance of
showers/storms in the afternoon persists into the weekend. For
today, some showers could begin to develop earlier in the day along
the nature coast and could drift onshore. Otherwise, best chances
will be later in the afternoon/evening with daytime heating, ample
moisture, and sea breeze collisions all come together. The flow will
continue to be on the light side, but will favor the E/SE  as the
ridge axis drifts further north. Showers diminish and winds become
light and variable overnight. This pattern continues into next week.

Daytime highs will hang in the low to mid 90s through most of the
week. Heat indices will reach in the triple digits most afternoons,
especially in locations free of rain. Remember proper outdoor
precautions in the summer when it comes to heat and thunderstorms.
When thunder roars, head indoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Areas of low clouds this morning could briefly impact sites.
However, mostly VFR conditions prevail through the day. Afternoon
thunderstorms likely beginning around 19/20Z and continuing through
the evening before diminishing. Winds remain light, but will mostly
be E/SE for sites down south, and W/NW for sites further north, as
the ridge axis begins to drift north. Regardless, flow remains below
10kts, outside of any thundestorm activity where winds may be
stronger.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

No headlines expected at this time as winds remain light. Only
concern will be the development of showers and storms over the water
in the morning. Or any showers that push over the waters from shore
later in the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

No major fire weather concerns at this time as ample moisture and
light winds continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  91  77 /  60  40  70  40
FMY  95  77  91  76 /  60  50  70  30
GIF  94  75  92  75 /  70  30  70  10
SRQ  93  76  91  75 /  50  40  70  40
BKV  92  74  92  73 /  60  30  70  40
SPG  93  81  91  80 /  50  40  70  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming