207
FXUS62 KTBW 251827
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
227 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Hurricane Helene is moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon with rain bands already starting to impact the Florida
peninsula. Please see the latest from our website or the National
Hurricane website for details.

Helene will move north of the region Thursday night into Friday,
though lingering moisture will lead to scattered showers and storms
through the weekend. Best chances will be inland as we keep a
southwest to west flow through Sunday. Helene`s remnants will linger
over the southeast U.S. into early next week before moving offshore
mid-week. This will keep a similar pattern in place for early in the
week, followed by some drier air for mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Occasional MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible through this
evening as scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
develop and spread northward ahead of Hurricane Helene. Flight
conditions will then deteriorate further overnight into Thursday as
MVFR CIGs develop and rainbands associated with Helene approach the
region, which will also result in periods of VSBY restrictions at
times. In addition, ESE winds will increase throughout the period
with sustained winds of 10-15 kts through this evening, 15-20 kts
overnight, and 25-30 kts on Thursday with gusts reaching up to
around 60 kts by tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warnings are in effect for all waters as
Hurricane Helene enters the Gulf of Mexico today. This storm will
continue to move northward and pass over our waters through
Thursday, with very dangerous marine conditions continuing as it
strengthens into a major hurricane. Helene will make landfall around
the Big Bend region later Thursday with elevated winds continuing
into Friday before decreasing for the weekend. Waves will continue
to build for the rest of the day and remain elevated through Friday
before those also decrease for the weekend. Continue to follow the
National Hurricane Center for updates on Helene. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hurricane Helene will pass over the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight
through Thursday, bringing frequent rain bands and strong winds. No
relative humidity concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  80  88 /  90  90  80  30
FMY  79  85  81  89 /  80  80  80  70
GIF  76  86  79  90 /  70  80  80  40
SRQ  80  89  81  89 /  90  90  80  40
BKV  77  84  77  90 /  80  90  70  30
SPG  79  85  82  89 /  90  90  80  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Friday morning
     for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-
     Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-
     Pinellas.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Discussion/Marine/Fire Weather...05/Carlisle/Shiveley
Aviation...Giarratana