475
FXUS63 KTOP 281739
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms move east through during
  the early morning hours

- The heat returns into the afternoon, and a heat advisory is in
  effect for portions of central and east central Kansas

- Severe Storms are possible later this afternoon into the
  evening hours with all modes of severe weather possible

- An unsettled patter brings intermittent rain and storm chances
  through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving across the forecast
area early this morning, bringing some locally heavy rain and
wind gusts in the 40 mph range as they pass. These storms move
east through the early to mid morning hours, and the heat will
make a return as the rain moves east. A heat advisory is in
effect for this afternoon for western and southern areas of the
forecast area.

The strong southerly return flow ahead of the northern tier
trof is quick to bring back strong instability and moisture with
over 3000J/kg of CAPE and 40kts of bulk shear by this afternoon.
Hodographs are supportive of supercells if there is enough
convergence to generate thunderstorms - and if they form along
the boundary then a tornado threat can`t be ruled out given low
level enhancement to the wind profile. Most convective models
suggest storms do develop in the 3-5pm timeframe generally along
and around I70 and move eastward. Another round of storms is
possible later in the evening and overnight as storms develop
along the western coldfront and move southeast into the high
plains of western and central Kansas, with wind and hail the
primary hazards.

Most of the area gets a reprieve for the weekend as cooler air
behind the front continues to drop southward into the area, with
highs in the 80s on Saturday, with upper 70s to 80s for highs
on Sunday. Better rain chances look to remain south of the area.

Unfortunately the hot temperatures don`t go far, and the ridge
noses back northward on Monday for a fast return back to the
90s with some 100s possible on Tuesday. The area remains in an
active flow pattern, either with passing upper trofs over the
state, or more zonal flow keeping frontal boundaries nearby.
This looks to bring the area back into the 90s for the mid to
late week, but also keeps rain chances lingering in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

South/southwest winds will continue to gust to 20-30 kt at
times this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening look to be
isolated, so have opted to leave mention out of TAFs with
confidence in them impacting terminals being too low. However,
if one develops, there could be some brief heavy rain with all
severe hazards possible. Cold front moves through and shifts
winds to the north/northwest late this evening and overnight.
Much of the latest guidance has the next round of storms
weakening as it moves out of western KS, so confidence that
they`ll make it this far east is even lower than the first
round. VFR conditions are forecast overall.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ058.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Picha