Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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784 FXUS63 KTOP 151937 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 237 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered storms could develop this afternoon through tonight. A few stronger storms could produce damaging wind gusts or small hail. -Hot and humid conditions continue through early next week. -A cold front looks to bring more storms to the area late Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 At midday, an outflow boundary from early morning convection across northern KS was draped across the western and southern portion of the forecast area, as evident on visible satellite imagery. By 19Z, the boundary had become a bit more diffuse on satellite and in sfc obs with temps and dew points more uniform. Winds, however, were still slightly backed near I-70 and north, which is also where mesoanalysis shows an instability and theta-e gradient. That lends evidence to the existence of the boundary still located in the area. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave trough is moving over western KS this afternoon. A LLJ will increase as the trough axis approaches late this afternoon and especially this evening. Am still thinking widely scattered storms could develop late this afternoon, perhaps near the lingering sfc boundary, with a slightly better chance this evening as the jet kicks in. The higher theta-e air mass is expected to advect north and east with time into the evening, but storms that develop will do so in an environment with 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Shear still appears to be on the weaker side with around 30 kts of deep layer shear present into tonight. Stronger storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts, near quarter sized hail and heavy rainfall. The trough axis moves east of the area tomorrow morning. Strong southerly flow continues across the region through early next week, keeping conditions warm with highs in the low to mid 90s. A mid-level ridge expands over the eastern and central CONUS through Tuesday, reinforcing hot and humid conditions. A cold front in Nebraska and western KS will nudge toward the CWA Tuesday afternoon and night. Convergence along the front looks strong enough to aid in thunderstorm development late Tuesday. That will be our next chance for precipitation. However, uncertainty remains in how far south the front will extend. Most models show it stalling across northeast KS on Wednesday before moving back to the north as a warm front on Thursday. Temperatures should be slightly cooler with the boundary in the area midweek. The eastern CONUS ridge then looks to expand over the area late in the week. NBM maintains occasional low end POPs through the end of the forecast period, but confidence is not currently high on thunderstorm timing and severity. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Easterly surface winds will continue to veer to the south early this TAF period, and will gust over 20 kts at times this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are then expected in northeastern KS this evening and tonight. Chances remain fairly low (20-30%) near terminals due to expected limited coverage. Thus, have not included TS in this update because of low confidence. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey