909
FXUS63 KTOP 251939
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
239 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues with near or slightly above normal
temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Upper trough axis extends from Ontario southward through the Great
Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley, leaving us on the subsident
side of the system today with sfc high pressure dominating across
the Plains. At the mid/upper levels, ridging holds strong over the
Rockies and High Plains. Hurricane Helene is just off the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula and moving into the southeastern Gulf as of
19Z. The upper ridge is progged to flatten and retrograde westward
in the next couple of days as the hurricane makes landfall and
eventually interacts with the upper low to our east. Models have
continued to trend east with any precipitation associated with those
interacting systems, and as such we now have a dry forecast going
forward for the next several days. We could see some high clouds
Friday and Saturday, which looks to be the extent of what we see
from the tropical system. Temperatures hold steady with lows in the
50s and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s through Monday.

The next noteworthy system to impact the local area comes as a low-
amplitude Pacific trough sweeps across the Northern Plains and drags
a cold front across the area in the Monday to Monday night time
frame. This looks to pass through dry at this time followed by a
slight cool-down on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions continue. Light north winds today will become
variable overnight under a clear sky. Can`t completely rule out
some shallow ground fog in the river valley around sunrise,
mainly impacting TOP, but confidence isn`t high enough to
include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha