789
FXUS64 KTSA 280255
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
955 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

As of mid evening a cluster of storms were located over far
Southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles. This activity
was being aided by an increasing low level jet and an eastward
moving outflow boundary...even though instability from max
heating had begun to weaken. Over the next several hours...as
these storms push farther eastward toward Northeast
Oklahoma...they should begin to run out ahead of the remaining
instability axis and weaken. As the storms weaken...they should
begin to move more with the mean mid-level flow...lifting more
northeast into Central/Eastern Kansas. Thus...based on latest
short-term guidance and the mentioned above will hold onto slight
chance PoPs for locations near the Oklahoma Kansas border...west
of Highway 75 after 06z tonight. Severe weather is not anticipated.

Across the rest of the CWA tonight...cloud cover associated with
the storm cluster will spread over much of the region. These
clouds along with southerly low level flow returning will help to
keep low temps tonight a little warmer compared to last night.
Thus...current forecast lows in the upper 60s and 70s continue to
look reasonable. For the evening update...have added minor tweaks
to the PoP configuration and to the hourly temp/dewpoint trends
overnight. The rest of the forecast seems to be handling well at
this time.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Heat will be the main story on Friday with high temperatures forecast
to be in the mid 90s to around 103. With dew points on the rise Friday,
heat index values will be in the 105 to 114 degree range across much
of eastern Oklahoma and west-central with heat headlines in place.
Yesterday`s rainfall will result in a swath of higher dew points across
eastern Oklahoma. With this in mind, an Excessive Heat Warning will be issued
for much of northeast Oklahoma where heat index values are most likely to be
in the 110 to 114 degree range Friday afternoon.

Heat headlines will be likely again on Saturday with high temperatures again in
the mid 90s to around 100. However, shower/storm chances will be on the
increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a cold front edges into the
area from the north. The chances of showers/storms continue on Sunday as the
convectively enhanced frontal boundary moves into southern portions of the area.
Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be somewhat cooler with heat headlines
unlikely.

The dangerous heat is likely to return early next week as the upper level ridge
attempts to build back over the area. Low shower/storm chances return mid-week
with some models suggesting a weakness in the upper level ridge allowing a
cold front to approach from the north.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with some
increase in mid cloud expected overnight. A very low chance of
shower/thunderstorm impacts will exist late tonight and into
tomorrow morning at BVO, but uncertainty will preclude its
inclusion in the TAF for now. Southerly winds will become gusty
mid to late morning tomorrow at the NE OK and far NW AR sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  98  81  99 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   71  97  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   74  96  78  97 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   73  98  77  97 /  20  20  20  30
FYV   69  94  75  97 /   0  10   0  20
BYV   68  95  75  97 /   0  10  10  30
MKO   73  95  78  97 /   0  10   0  20
MIO   72  94  77  95 /  10  10  20  40
F10   73  96  77  96 /  10  10   0  20
HHW   71  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-058-
     063-068-072>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for
     OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070-071.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...22