Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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083 FXUS64 KTSA 240816 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 316 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Another day of hot temperatures in store for all of E OK/NW AR. Have upgraded the Heat Watch to an Excessive Heat Warning, and this will also include LeFlore and Sequoyah counties with heat index values of 110-112 degrees expected. Elsewhere, the Heat Advisory remains as is. Headlines will be in effect from noon to 9pm. Some CAMS suggest potential for a few showers/storms this afternoon in the higher terrain of far E OK and NW AR, but will not include any mention as coverage should remain very low. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Hot temperatures continue tomorrow, but a few more clouds during the afternoon may keep temps down a degree or two. Will go ahead with a Heat Advisory from noon to 9pm tomorrow for all zones except the four far NW AR zones. Isolated storms are possible tomorrow afternoon across parts of NW AR so will include a low PoP in that area. With upper ridging setting up across the SW CONUS, NW upper flow will bring a wave into the area along with a surface boundary Tuesday night and into Wednesday afternoon. Chances for showers and storms will increase at this time, with the slightly better chances across NE OK and NW AR Tuesday night and Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday, however hot temperatures return at the end of the week as the upper ridge sets up across the southern plains for Friday. Additional chances for showers and storms may come next weekend, especially across NE OK with convection that develops to the north in KS along a cold front. This boundary may push into the over the weekend, so will go with lower chance PoPs for parts of the area Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period for all sites. Southerly sfc winds increase to near 10-15 kts during the late morning and afternoon hours. Otherwise, scattered mid/ high clouds are forecast with a very low chance (<10%) of an isolated shower during the afternoon across E-Central OK & W-Central AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 100 80 99 77 / 0 0 10 30 FSM 101 78 99 77 / 0 0 10 20 MLC 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 10 20 BVO 101 77 98 73 / 0 0 10 40 FYV 99 74 95 72 / 0 0 10 30 BYV 99 75 96 73 / 10 0 20 30 MKO 98 77 97 75 / 0 0 10 30 MIO 99 76 96 72 / 0 0 10 50 F10 97 77 96 75 / 0 0 10 20 HHW 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>071-073>075. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ072-076. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...43