715
FXUS64 KTSA 280520
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

As of mid evening a cluster of storms were located over far
Southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles. This activity
was being aided by an increasing low level jet and an eastward
moving outflow boundary...even though instability from max
heating had begun to weaken. Over the next several hours...as
these storms push farther eastward toward Northeast
Oklahoma...they should begin to run out ahead of the remaining
instability axis and weaken. As the storms weaken...they should
begin to move more with the mean mid-level flow...lifting more
northeast into Central/Eastern Kansas. Thus...based on latest
short-term guidance and the mentioned above will hold onto slight
chance PoPs for locations near the Oklahoma Kansas border...west
of Highway 75 after 06z tonight. Severe weather is not anticipated.

Across the rest of the CWA tonight...cloud cover associated with
the storm cluster will spread over much of the region. These
clouds along with southerly low level flow returning will help to
keep low temps tonight a little warmer compared to last night.
Thus...current forecast lows in the upper 60s and 70s continue to
look reasonable. For the evening update...have added minor tweaks
to the PoP configuration and to the hourly temp/dewpoint trends
overnight. The rest of the forecast seems to be handling well at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Heat will be the main story on Friday with high temperatures forecast
to be in the mid 90s to around 103. With dew points on the rise Friday,
heat index values will be in the 105 to 114 degree range across much
of eastern Oklahoma and west-central with heat headlines in place.
Yesterday`s rainfall will result in a swath of higher dew points across
eastern Oklahoma. With this in mind, an Excessive Heat Warning will be issued
for much of northeast Oklahoma where heat index values are most likely to be
in the 110 to 114 degree range Friday afternoon.

Heat headlines will be likely again on Saturday with high temperatures again in
the mid 90s to around 100. However, shower/storm chances will be on the
increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a cold front edges into the
area from the north. The chances of showers/storms continue on Sunday as the
convectively enhanced frontal boundary moves into southern portions of the area.
Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be somewhat cooler with heat headlines
unlikely.

The dangerous heat is likely to return early next week as the upper level ridge
attempts to build back over the area. Low shower/storm chances return mid-week
with some models suggesting a weakness in the upper level ridge allowing a
cold front to approach from the north.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024
Cluster of storms currently moving into south central Kansas will
mainly stay north of KBVO overnight but a few passing showers could
occur late tonight. Otherwise, scattered high clouds expected with
gusty south winds increasing by mid morning. VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  81  99  76 /  10  10  20  50
FSM   97  78  99  79 /   0   0  10  30
MLC   96  78  97  76 /  10   0  10  20
BVO   98  77  97  71 /  20  20  30  60
FYV   94  75  97  73 /  10   0  20  40
BYV   95  75  97  72 /  10  10  30  50
MKO   95  78  97  76 /  10   0  20  40
MIO   94  77  95  71 /  10  20  40  50
F10   96  77  96  75 /  10   0  20  40
HHW   93  77  94  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-058-063-068-072>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070-071.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12