163
FXUS65 KVEF 261713
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1013 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will help fuel showers and
thunderstorms again today. Highest flash flood threat will be in
northwest Arizona and highest damaging wind gust threat will be in
east central Nevada. Storm chances dwindle through Friday and above-
average heat will continue as we move through the weekend.
&&


.UPDATE...Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible today,
but to a lesser areal extent than yesterday. Coverage will favor the
southern Great Basin (south-central Nevada) and northwestern
Arizona. Highest chances of flash flood potential remain over
northwestern Arizona today - particularly in areas that have
received multiple rounds of rain the last few afternoons - with over
an inch of Precipitable Water. PWATs remain above 0.75" in Esmeralda
and southern Nye counties, with around 500 J/kg of CAPE expected
this afternoon. Convection will favor the higher terrain in the
absence of synoptic lift. Forecast HRRR soundings indicate upward of
1000 J/kg of DCAPE could exist across the southwestern Great Basin
today, which will continue the threat for damaging wind gusts with
associated thunderstorms in that region. Temperatures will rise to 5-
7 degrees above seasonal averages this afternoon. No changes were
made to the forecast this afternoon, as it looks to be in good
shape.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...219 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024/


.SHORT TERM...Through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms continue to rumble at this hour around parts
of Lincoln County, while there was an isolated storm that popped up
over Mesquite dumping nearly four tenths of an inch between midnight
and 1 am. This round of convection should wind down by 6 am this
morning.

Even though some drier air will start to work into our far western
areas this afternoon, ample moisture remains today with PW values
running about 150-225% of normal. Best instability will remain
across southeast Nevada, northwest Arizona and eastern San
Bernardino County where the HREF depicts CAPE values between 500-
1000 J/kg. A secondary axis of instability will exist over northern
Inyo and Esmeralda Counties where isolated storms are possible. Like
yesterday, stronger storm capable of producing gusty winds, heavy
rain and small hail.

That drier air will make further inroads east across the region
limiting any chance for showers and thunderstorms to far eastern
Lincoln County and Mohave County Thursday, with no threat of storms
Friday as PW anomalies drop to below-normal. That drier air will
arrive with gusty southwest winds, especially on Thursday when gusts
will likely peak between 25 and 35 mph. Temperatures will continue
to run several degrees above-normal, but the drier air will allow
for better radiational cooling in the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

Monsoon moisture could slosh back and forth into far eastern Mohave
County at times Sunday through Tuesday. However, the passage of a
trough through the Great Basin/northern states will keep southern
Nevada/eastern California storm-free. Temperatures stay above-normal
while southwest breezes stay elevated through the weekend.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy southerly (150 degrees to
210 degrees) winds will continue through the evening hours. Winds
will gradually increase during the early afternoon with wind gusts
around 20 to 25 knots continuing into the evening hours before
dropping off. Winds will continue to favor a more southerly
direction after wind gusts drop off. Afternoon convection will be
possible in the higher terrain surrounding the Las Vegas valley, but
is not expected to move off the terrain and make it to the terminal
area.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds are expected at
the Las Vegas and Colorado River Valley TAF sites this morning and
afternoon with 20 to 25 knot wind gusts picking up during the
afternoon hours and continuing into the evening hours. Northerly
winds will become light and variable before settling in from the
southwest and picking up slightly this afternoon at KBIH. These
southwesterly winds will swing around to the northwest around
sunset. KDAG will favor a westerly direction with 20 to 30 knot wind
gusts picking up later this afternoon and continuing into the
evening hours. Isolated afternoon convection is expected in the
higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona,
but is not expected to make it to any of the TAF sites.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Soulat
DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Stessman

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