262
FXUS65 KABQ 121915
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
115 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Heat continues across eastern and central New Mexico through
  the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related
  illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

- Isolated to scattered storms may produce strong downburst wind
  gusts, brief rain, and blowing dust this afternoon and evening.

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture starting Sunday and increasing
  into next week will elevated the risk of heavy rainfall and
  flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The Monsoon high is currently centered over southern NM and
forecast to move east through Sunday to over the Ark-La-Tex, which
will open the southern door for moisture advection into our area.
This trend has already begun and PWATs are climbing, with the 18Z
KABQ upper air sounding showing 0.76" which is almost 0.30" higher
than 24hrs ago. This trend will continue Sunday, with PWATs
forecast to reach up to near 1.0" at KABQ. Today`s crop of
convection will be limited in coverage and be of lower
precipitation efficiency due to the lower PWAT atmosphere.
Strong/erratic wind gusts will be the primary threat with storms
today, although slow storm motion and a slightly higher PWAT
environment across the Southwest Mountains may allow for a few
spots of locally heavy rainfall. A more standard Monsoon
atmosphere will be in place by Sunday and an uptick in convective
coverage with greater rainfall efficiency are expected. There is a
moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding in Ruidoso Sunday
afternoon, but storms will be moving north and cross-basin, which
may limit the threat to training storms. A moderate heat risk will
persist across the eastern plains Sunday and Roswell is forecast
to reach 102 degrees, which would be the 3rd day in a row of 100+
and the 4th of the last 5 days. Several locales across eastern NM
will challenge daily record highs Sunday, including Roswell.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

PWATs will continue to climb from Monday through Thursday,
challenging daily record values as the upper high sets up over
TN/AL/MS and troughing along the west coast allows for a Monsoon
moisture plume to stand up over the region. This will be an
increasingly wet period, with daytime temps trending down, PoPs
trending up and an increasing threat for locally heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding. The threat for burn scar flash
flooding will increase as well and be elevated all week. An upper
low/trough will move east toward the central Rockies Thursday and
bring added forcing to the region, potentially enhancing
convection and the flash flood threat. The 12Z medium range model
solutions show a drop-off in PWATs beginning Friday and continuing
through the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the
Desert SW and southern Great Basin, bringing a downtrend in PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with low
probabilities for MVFR conditions in blowing dust kicked up
by gusty outflow from isolated showers and storms this
afternoon/evening. Terminals more likely to be impacted by
gusty outflow winds later today are KGUP and KROW. Otherwise,
light winds are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. Relatively dry and unusually hot conditions
will be replaced with higher humidity and good chances for
wetting rain from Sunday through much of next week as a Monsoon
moisture plume develops over the area. High temperatures will
trend down going into mid week and be near to below average from
mid through late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  91  62  83 /   5  20  50  50
Dulce...........................  50  87  53  79 /   0  40  50  70
Cuba............................  57  85  56  77 /   5  30  50  80
Gallup..........................  55  86  56  80 /  10  20  40  50
El Morro........................  53  83  54  77 /  20  40  50  60
Grants..........................  56  86  57  81 /  20  40  40  60
Quemado.........................  57  84  57  78 /  20  40  40  80
Magdalena.......................  62  86  62  80 /  30  30  30  80
Datil...........................  56  82  56  77 /  20  40  40  70
Reserve.........................  57  87  57  83 /  20  30  20  60
Glenwood........................  61  93  62  88 /  20  20  30  60
Chama...........................  51  81  51  72 /   0  40  50  70
Los Alamos......................  62  86  61  80 /  10  30  40  80
Pecos...........................  56  87  57  82 /  10  30  50  50
Cerro/Questa....................  54  84  56  78 /   5  20  20  60
Red River.......................  47  75  49  69 /   5  20  20  50
Angel Fire......................  40  80  47  75 /   5  40  30  50
Taos............................  54  88  57  82 /   5  20  30  50
Mora............................  53  84  55  81 /  10  40  40  50
Espanola........................  62  92  63  86 /   5  20  30  60
Santa Fe........................  60  88  60  82 /  10  20  40  50
Santa Fe Airport................  60  90  60  85 /  10  20  40  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  92  66  87 /  10  20  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  92  67  88 /  10  20  30  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  94  66  89 /  10  20  30  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  93  67  88 /  10  20  40  60
Belen...........................  65  95  65  89 /  10  10  30  60
Bernalillo......................  66  94  66  89 /  10  20  30  50
Bosque Farms....................  63  94  63  89 /  10  10  30  60
Corrales........................  66  94  66  89 /  10  20  30  50
Los Lunas.......................  63  94  63  89 /  10  10  30  60
Placitas........................  65  91  65  86 /  10  20  30  50
Rio Rancho......................  67  93  67  88 /  10  20  40  50
Socorro.........................  70  96  70  90 /  20  10  30  70
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  87  61  82 /  10  30  30  50
Tijeras.........................  63  88  62  84 /  10  30  30  50
Edgewood........................  60  89  60  85 /  10  30  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  91  55  87 /  10  20  30  50
Clines Corners..................  58  87  59  83 /  20  20  30  40
Mountainair.....................  60  89  61  84 /  10  20  20  50
Gran Quivira....................  60  89  61  85 /  10  20  20  50
Carrizozo.......................  66  91  66  87 /   5  20  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  60  83  59  80 /   5  50  20  60
Capulin.........................  55  87  60  86 /   5  20  30  30
Raton...........................  53  91  56  89 /   5  20  20  30
Springer........................  55  93  58  90 /   5  30  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  56  88  58  84 /  10  30  30  30
Clayton.........................  61  94  67  93 /   5  10  30  20
Roy.............................  59  91  64  89 /   5  10  30  30
Conchas.........................  65 100  69  97 /   5  10  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  65  96  67  93 /   5  20  30  50
Tucumcari.......................  67 100  70  97 /   5  10  20  20
Clovis..........................  69  99  68  95 /   5  10  20  10
Portales........................  70 100  68  96 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  68  99  69  96 /   5  10  20  20
Roswell.........................  71 102  70  99 /   5  10  10  20
Picacho.........................  65  94  64  91 /  10  30  20  60
Elk.............................  62  91  61  88 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11