Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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911 FXUS65 KABQ 242320 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 516 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026 - Increasing risk of flash flooding from slow moving thunderstorms over portions of central and western NM through this weekend. - Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico through the 7-day period with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. - Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms threatening lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages through the 7-day period. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026 The latest water vapor imagery and GOES satellite-derived winds showed the monsoon high centered near Gallup today with a rich plume of mid and upper level moisture stretching from west to east across the northern half of NM. A large wedge of upper level dry air is draped across southern NM ahead of an inverted trough moving west across the Big Bend. Strong heating, rich moisture, and orographics will continue to allow showers and storms to develop over the high terrain today then move erratically into nearby lowlands on storm outflows. 12Z models captured a shortwave upper level trough over northeast NM rounding the H5 high center this morning. Several models focus robust convection today along the central mt chain and high plains of eastern NM as the shortwave moves southward around the monsoon high. The updated SPC convective outlook today shows a `Marginal Risk` area over eastern NM where bulk shear has improved. The RRFS, HRRR, and NAM12 rotate a remnant MCV feature southwest toward the ABQ metro this evening with showers likely to persist well into the evening over central NM. The focus for robust storms with heavy rainfall rates Saturday will depend partly on where the remnant MCV is positioned in the morning. There is moderate to high confidence that the wave will be near Grants with a trajectory westward toward already saturated areas of western NM. Hi-res ensemble LPMM QPF and NBM90th percentile shows a few clusters with >1.5" over western NM, including the western parts of Lincoln County. Given the recent heavy rain and saturated soils across western NM and the burn scar flood risk, Flood Watches will be issued for Saturday. WPC also shows a large `Slight Risk` of excessive rainfall with a target area between Gallup, Grants, and the Gila region. Storm motions will be slightly faster Saturday and more toward the west and northwest compared to today. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026 By Sunday and Monday, the monsoon high will expand to near 598dm and become centered more over northeast NM and west TX. This will drive the main moisture plume west of the Cont Divide. Steering flow will also become more southeast/northwest with less convection expected over central and eastern NM. Max temps will also rise into the upper 90s and low 100s for parts of the RGV and eastern NM so additional heat risk impacts are expected. The rest of the week will be typical of late July with the monsoon high center drifting west into the Four Corners region. Abundant moisture beneath the high will allow for daily rounds of showers and storms to develop over the high terrain then move erratically into nearby lowlands thru the afternoon. Max temps will stay above normal next week, especially for eastern NM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 516 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Widespread storms will continue through the evening around the region, with the highest coverage in and around the central mountain chain. Storms will decrease in intensity after 03Z, with mostly showery precipitation in central and west-central NM overnight. Another round of widespread showers and storms is expected Saturday afternoon, with coverage favoring the western half of the state. Storms will slowly move from east to west at 5 to 10 knots. Gusty outflow winds up to 35 knots and small hail will possible with any storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026 There are no critical fire weather concerns for at least the next two weeks. While much of northern and western NM are moistening up, patchy dry fuels may still lead to new fire starts from lightning strikes. The greatest storm chances will focus over northern and western NM, especially west of the Cont Divide. Storms will develop on the high terrain then move erratically into nearby lowlands on convective outflows. Small footprints with rainfall amounts of 1-2" will occur with direct hits. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 68 98 68 97 / 5 5 30 20 Dulce........................... 54 95 54 94 / 20 50 20 60 Cuba............................ 61 90 60 90 / 30 30 40 40 Gallup.......................... 61 90 59 90 / 10 60 30 50 El Morro........................ 61 86 58 86 / 10 70 40 70 Grants.......................... 63 90 61 91 / 10 50 40 60 Quemado......................... 62 87 59 86 / 20 70 40 70 Magdalena....................... 67 89 66 89 / 30 40 40 50 Datil........................... 63 85 62 85 / 30 60 30 70 Reserve......................... 61 94 59 93 / 30 70 40 70 Glenwood........................ 65 98 62 97 / 20 60 40 50 Chama........................... 53 86 54 86 / 20 60 20 70 Los Alamos...................... 67 89 66 90 / 40 40 20 30 Pecos........................... 60 89 59 90 / 30 60 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 59 87 60 88 / 20 50 10 40 Red River....................... 50 84 52 85 / 10 50 10 60 Angel Fire...................... 48 83 50 85 / 20 50 20 50 Taos............................ 57 91 58 91 / 20 40 10 30 Mora............................ 57 86 57 89 / 20 50 10 30 Espanola........................ 66 96 66 97 / 30 30 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 66 90 66 90 / 30 50 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 93 63 93 / 30 40 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 71 96 70 97 / 40 40 50 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 97 68 98 / 40 30 50 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 99 67 100 / 30 30 50 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 98 70 98 / 30 30 40 5 Belen........................... 68 99 66 99 / 40 30 50 5 Bernalillo...................... 69 98 69 99 / 30 30 30 5 Bosque Farms.................... 66 98 65 98 / 40 30 50 5 Corrales........................ 70 99 69 100 / 30 30 40 5 Los Lunas....................... 68 98 67 98 / 40 30 50 5 Placitas........................ 69 94 69 95 / 40 40 30 5 Rio Rancho...................... 70 98 69 98 / 30 30 40 5 Socorro......................... 73 101 72 101 / 30 20 40 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 91 64 91 / 40 50 40 10 Tijeras......................... 62 93 62 93 / 40 50 40 10 Edgewood........................ 60 94 59 94 / 50 50 40 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 94 57 94 / 50 60 40 10 Clines Corners.................. 60 88 59 89 / 50 60 40 10 Mountainair..................... 60 93 60 93 / 50 50 50 10 Gran Quivira.................... 63 91 62 91 / 40 40 40 10 Carrizozo....................... 69 93 68 94 / 30 40 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 64 86 63 86 / 20 50 20 50 Capulin......................... 58 90 60 92 / 20 10 10 20 Raton........................... 57 94 59 97 / 20 20 10 20 Springer........................ 59 95 60 98 / 30 20 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 60 90 60 91 / 30 30 20 20 Clayton......................... 66 99 69 101 / 10 5 5 0 Roy............................. 63 92 65 94 / 30 10 10 5 Conchas......................... 68 100 69 102 / 30 5 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 94 66 97 / 50 10 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 70 101 71 102 / 30 5 20 0 Clovis.......................... 69 98 69 100 / 50 10 5 0 Portales........................ 70 99 70 101 / 50 10 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 69 99 70 101 / 40 10 20 0 Roswell......................... 74 101 73 102 / 30 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 68 95 67 96 / 20 20 5 10 Elk............................. 66 93 64 94 / 10 20 5 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ202-204>206-208-209. Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for NMZ226. Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...16