Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
396 FXUS65 KABQ 032346 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 546 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 556 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Isolated showers and storms will develop across western and north-central New Mexico this afternoon through Saturday. - Breezy south to southwest winds today increase more Saturday, creating hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles. - There is moderate to high confidence that wetter than normal weather will occur over portions of central and northern New Mexico next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 An upper level low is moving into the Great Basin today, and per water vapor imagery and upper level observations, the jet appears to be weakening on the backside with higher speeds rounding the base of the low and now beginning to precede it. This will slow the southward dig that the feature was exhibiting this morning and steer the low more due eastward through the afternoon. The strong gradient will continue to bring wind speeds up over AZ and secondarily over NM today with speeds increasing more for the Land of Enchantment Saturday. The breezy conditions will be somewhat inflated in the Rio Grande valley through early evening, as the southerly component will be parallel to the Rio Grande and uninhibited, so gusts of 20 to 25 mph will be common through the remainder of today. Upper level diffluence will also force large scale lift into eastern AZ and far western NM later this afternoon with a few showers and spotty thunderstorms taking shape. These will carry on into the late evening over far western NM with better forcing via orographics starting to impact the San Juans of CO and secondarily the Chuskas and Tusas of northwest NM tonight as the low works into UT. For early Saturday morning, surface winds will decouple and turn light and variable with a few localized drainage breezes even briefly becoming established around dawn, especially in sheltered valleys. However, the winds aloft will be cranking up with many areas seeing 35-40 kt just a couple thousand feet above the surface, even though the core of the 700 mb jet will still be in eastern AZ around sunrise. As diurnal mixing begins through the mid to late morning and afternoon, higher speeds aloft will quickly translate to the surface, and a lee side surface low will deepen in eastern CO, invoking windy conditions for much of northern and central NM Saturday afternoon, and especially in northeastern zones. The Raton Pass (NMZ227) looks to reach Wind Advisory criteria (gusts of 50 mph), but will hold off on an issuance just yet, as some neighboring zones are marginal. Rain and high mountain snow will expand over more of northwestern and north central NM midday Saturday as the low fills in and rapidly ejects into the central Rockies. Instability will be rather low, but sufficient for some thunder Saturday, and a few stray, fleeting showers or storms may dip just south of I-40 before racing north northeastward in the afternoon. Showers and storms would then reduce in coverage as they shift into northeastern parts of NM Saturday evening. Winds will also decouple and decrease in speed Saturday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 The central Rockies vort max will eject into the northern Great Plains Sunday with additional vortices dropping southward behind it, one into ID and another faster one along the west coast. This will essentially carve out a long wave trough over the western ConUS Sunday. Wind speeds aloft will be stronger than recent weeks, but notably less than Saturday`s speeds. This will spell light to moderately breezy conditions on Sunday, and dry air aloft will keep mostly clear skies over NM as temperatures run near to about 10 degrees above average. A backdoor cold front is still slated to drop into northeast NM Sunday night, potentially creating enough surface/moisture convergence for a few overnight light showers. The aforementioned west coast shortwave will close off into a low offshore of southern CA Monday, feeding some perturbed and slightly stronger southwesterlies into NM. Meanwhile, the surface front in NM will try to wash out and retreat into Monday, but forecast models continue to generate some light QPF east of the central mountain chain where lagging surface/moisture convergence and modest instability are juxtaposed. The front gains a second push into Tuesday, spreading a cooler, more moist and mostly easterly surface flow into more of interior NM while small scale perturbations move overhead. This will increase the coverage of showers and garden variety thunderstorms, mainly along and east of the Continental Divide where PWATs will creep up to a 0.65 to 1.0 inch range with highest values in the eastern zones. Into Wednesday, the CA coast low will have quickly traversed the western states and will be moving into the northern Rockies with more smaller scale shortwaves still modeled to move over NM. Surface flow will be veering southerly, but moisture will remain in place, and additional showers and storms will redevelop Wednesday and Wednesday night. By Thursday, a new low will be dropping offshore of the Pacific Northwestern states while a ridge broadens over TX and beyond. This will keep a moist return flow coming from the Gulf, and attention will be turning to the eastern Pacific waters where tropical cyclone activity will potentially be located. The weather for the latter part of the work week will consequently depend on the interaction of these features and whether subtropical moisture can get squeezed between the Pacific Northwest trough/low and the TX ridge. Deterministic and ensembles have a myriad of differing solutions, but ensemble means and consensus blends are pointing toward northwestern NM zones being favored for precip during this stretch. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Gusty showers with isolated lightning strikes will continue to impact KGUP and KFMN through mid this evening. Strengthening south southwest winds aloft will result in LLWS across most TAF sites across northern and central NM overnight. A pacific front will move across the area during the midday and afternoon hours of Saturday. Daytime mixing will allow stronger winds aloft to mix down resulting in wind gusts of 25 to 40 kts across much of the area. The strongest wind gusts will be across west central NM, including KGUP and far northeast NM including KRTN and KCAO. Some gusty showers possible across northern NM and the middle RGV, including KSAF, KABQ, KAEG, and KLVS as the front passes through. These gusty showers will result in locally stronger wind gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Breezy to windy conditions have developed this afternoon, especially in northeastern NM. Quick-moving showers and thunderstorms are also starting to pop up over far western NM, and these will continue through the early evening with only very sparse and isolated spots receiving at least 0.10". As the Great Basin low moves to the central Rockies, winds will strengthen significantly on Saturday. Northeastern zones will once again host the strongest gusts, reaching as high as 40 to 50 mph. Showers and thunderstorms will refocus over northwestern to north central zones on Saturday with a few struggling near and just south of I-40. Along with the windy conditions, recent Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) grids are still indicating a couple to a few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions in western and northeastern zones Saturday, fuel moisture should mitigate these concerns. The weather become more settled with dry and near to slightly warmer than normal conditions on Sunday. Into Monday, more seasonable temperatures and daily chances of spotty to scattered showers and storms are expected, and this trend will likely persist through at least the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 56 74 40 72 / 60 30 0 0 Dulce........................... 46 69 31 70 / 60 80 20 0 Cuba............................ 50 74 38 71 / 20 40 20 0 Gallup.......................... 50 73 32 72 / 20 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 49 71 35 71 / 20 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 49 76 34 75 / 20 20 0 0 Quemado......................... 50 75 36 75 / 20 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 55 76 45 76 / 5 10 5 0 Datil........................... 48 73 38 73 / 10 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 50 78 39 76 / 20 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 55 83 47 80 / 20 10 0 0 Chama........................... 44 62 29 64 / 40 70 40 0 Los Alamos...................... 53 71 44 70 / 10 30 30 0 Pecos........................... 47 73 41 71 / 0 20 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 47 69 36 67 / 5 40 30 0 Red River....................... 41 62 30 62 / 0 30 30 0 Angel Fire...................... 35 66 20 65 / 0 20 20 0 Taos............................ 47 72 35 71 / 5 30 30 0 Mora............................ 43 69 37 70 / 0 20 20 0 Espanola........................ 50 78 41 76 / 10 30 30 0 Santa Fe........................ 52 74 43 72 / 5 20 20 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 79 41 76 / 5 20 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 79 50 76 / 0 20 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 82 52 79 / 0 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 84 44 81 / 5 10 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 83 49 79 / 5 20 10 0 Belen........................... 55 85 49 82 / 5 5 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 55 82 47 79 / 0 20 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 53 83 46 81 / 5 10 5 0 Corrales........................ 56 83 47 79 / 5 20 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 54 84 48 81 / 5 10 5 0 Placitas........................ 55 79 47 76 / 0 20 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 57 81 48 78 / 5 20 10 0 Socorro......................... 57 85 51 83 / 0 5 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 74 43 72 / 0 20 10 0 Tijeras......................... 54 75 45 74 / 0 20 10 0 Edgewood........................ 48 75 41 75 / 0 20 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 77 40 77 / 0 20 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 48 73 43 73 / 0 20 20 0 Mountainair..................... 50 76 44 75 / 0 10 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 49 75 46 75 / 0 10 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 79 54 78 / 0 5 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 73 44 71 / 0 10 10 5 Capulin......................... 49 72 42 73 / 0 5 20 0 Raton........................... 48 76 40 75 / 0 10 20 0 Springer........................ 49 78 41 79 / 0 10 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 47 73 43 73 / 0 20 20 0 Clayton......................... 55 81 53 82 / 0 0 10 0 Roy............................. 52 76 47 78 / 0 5 10 0 Conchas......................... 56 85 54 86 / 0 5 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 53 81 52 83 / 0 5 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 56 85 57 86 / 0 0 5 5 Clovis.......................... 56 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 56 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 56 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 58 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 54 83 54 84 / 0 5 5 5 Elk............................. 50 78 52 79 / 0 5 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...71