Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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836 FXUS65 KABQ 251922 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 122 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026 - There is a moderate to high risk of flash flooding from slow moving thunderstorms over portions of central and western NM through this weekend. - Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. - Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026 The latest water vapor imagery and GOES derived winds shows deep moisture draped across NM with the center of the monsoon high near the Four Corners. The 18Z KABQ PWAT was 1.32" (just below the daily record of 1.39" from 1968) with slow steering flow toward the west and northwest. Showers and storms have developed over the higher terrain and will continue expanding thru the afternoon. Abundant moisture and instability with slow-moving storms will elevate the risk for flash flooding, especially in areas that have received recent heavy rains. The Flood Watch was expanded to include the Middle and Lower RGV westward into the watch that was already in effect. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hour are expected with the stronger cells, along with strong downburst wind gusts, small hail, and frequent lightning strikes. Several CAMs show storms tapering off to showers thru late evening as an MCV feature rolls northwest across central NM. Storm placement Sunday is still likely to be focused over northern and western NM, however the coverage is more uncertain. The monsoon high will refocus over northeast NM Sunday and strengthen to near 599dm. H5 temps warm to near -3C over a larger area of central and eastern NM with H7 temps between +18 and +22C. The remnant MCV near west-central NM may amount to no more than persistent cloud cover Sunday morning, which could limit coverage from less instability, or, delay storms until later in the day. Areas surrounding the cloud shield may erupt again by early to mid afternoon as long as updrafts can overcome very warm mid level temps. The 12Z NAM and RRFS show the central mt chain westward favored for the heavier QPF Sunday, including the Ruidoso area. However, the HREF & REFS 6-hour LPMM QPFs and NBM90th percentile QPF show an overall downtrend in the heavier rainfall footprints Sunday. There are several conflicting factors that do not warrant a Flood Watch at this time so latest trends in 00Z/06Z guidance will be helpful to improve confidence. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Monday thru Friday will feature a typical late July monsoon pattern with the upper level high migrating westward across northern NM to the Four Corners region by late week. Daily rounds of showers and storms will develop over the higher terrain then move into nearby lowlands on convective outflows. High PWATs and slow storm motion will still allow for locally heavy rainfall amounts >1.5". Northern and western NM will be favored in this pattern with differences in the overall coverage and intensity varying from day to day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026 SHRA/TS will form over the high terrain thru 2pm today then move erratically north and west into nearby lowlands thru this evening. Direct hits will produce IFR/MVFR vsbys in heavy rain, outflow wind gusts >35KT, and frequent lightning strikes. The main focus today will stretch along and west of the central mt chain. Showers are likely to persist thru 2am across western NM with partial clearing elsewhere. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026 There are no critical fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. Patchy dry fuels across the region may still lead to new fire starts from lightning strikes. A typical monsoon pattern will focus the greatest chances for locally heavy rainfall across the northern and western high terrain thru late next week. Storms will form over the high terrain each day then move erratically into nearby lowlands thru the afternoon and evening. Small footprints with rainfall amounts of 1 to 2" may create flash flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 68 97 68 97 / 30 20 20 5 Dulce........................... 55 94 55 94 / 30 60 20 50 Cuba............................ 61 90 61 91 / 30 30 30 20 Gallup.......................... 60 90 60 91 / 50 60 20 20 El Morro........................ 59 86 59 87 / 60 60 30 30 Grants.......................... 61 91 62 92 / 60 40 30 20 Quemado......................... 60 87 61 87 / 70 50 30 20 Magdalena....................... 67 89 66 91 / 30 40 20 10 Datil........................... 62 85 62 86 / 50 50 20 30 Reserve......................... 60 93 59 94 / 40 50 20 40 Glenwood........................ 64 98 63 98 / 40 30 20 40 Chama........................... 54 86 54 86 / 20 60 20 70 Los Alamos...................... 67 91 68 92 / 20 20 30 30 Pecos........................... 60 91 61 92 / 30 20 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 61 89 60 89 / 10 30 40 50 Red River....................... 53 84 53 84 / 10 40 40 70 Angel Fire...................... 50 85 51 85 / 10 40 30 60 Taos............................ 59 92 59 92 / 20 20 30 30 Mora............................ 58 90 59 90 / 20 30 20 60 Espanola........................ 67 98 67 98 / 20 10 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 66 91 67 92 / 20 10 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 94 65 95 / 20 10 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 71 98 72 99 / 40 5 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 99 69 100 / 30 5 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 100 68 102 / 30 0 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 98 71 100 / 30 0 20 0 Belen........................... 68 99 68 101 / 20 5 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 69 100 70 101 / 30 5 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 66 98 67 100 / 20 5 20 0 Corrales........................ 69 100 70 101 / 30 5 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 68 98 68 100 / 20 0 20 0 Placitas........................ 69 96 70 97 / 30 5 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 69 99 70 100 / 30 5 20 0 Socorro......................... 73 101 73 103 / 30 10 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 91 65 93 / 40 10 20 5 Tijeras......................... 63 94 65 96 / 40 10 20 5 Edgewood........................ 60 95 61 97 / 40 10 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 95 59 96 / 30 10 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 60 90 61 91 / 20 10 20 10 Mountainair..................... 61 93 61 95 / 30 10 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 63 91 63 93 / 30 10 10 5 Carrizozo....................... 68 94 69 97 / 20 10 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 64 87 64 89 / 20 30 5 30 Capulin......................... 60 93 60 92 / 5 10 20 40 Raton........................... 59 98 59 97 / 5 10 20 30 Springer........................ 61 99 61 98 / 5 5 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 60 93 61 93 / 20 10 20 20 Clayton......................... 69 101 70 103 / 0 0 5 5 Roy............................. 65 95 65 96 / 5 0 10 0 Conchas......................... 70 103 70 105 / 5 0 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 98 67 99 / 5 0 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 72 103 72 105 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 69 100 69 103 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 70 101 70 103 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 100 71 103 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 74 102 74 105 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 68 96 68 99 / 10 10 5 10 Elk............................. 65 93 65 96 / 5 20 5 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-204>209-219- 220-241. Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42