Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
450 FXUS65 KABQ 181116 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 516 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Freezing temperatures will likely bring an end to the growing season in additional portions of northern New Mexico through the morning and again in the Estancia valley tonight through Sunday morning. - Moderate breezes are likely each day in eastern New Mexico today through Tuesday, creating briefly hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles. - A Pacific storm system will introduce low chances for light precipitation across western and northern areas of New Mexico Tuesday night through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1134 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A weak shortwave trough that was progged to move across central NM is doing so, almost wrapping up into a weak circulation per latest water vapor imagery. This feature was quite void of moisture as it approached, but the faint cyclonic characteristics have induced enough lift to squeeze out some mid level condensation and altocu/stratus. Even a few weak echoes are being noted on radar, and a sprinkle or two is not out of the question beneath these through the morning. Nocturnal mountain breezes in CO and northern NM are producing some drainage winds into portions of the upper and middle Rio Grande valley, some of which will turn gusty through the mid to late morning. Skies will clear out through the late morning into the early afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave exits eastward. A more northern stream trough will be tethered to the polar jet and in phase with the aforementioned shortwave to the south. This will send a speed max aloft southeastward into NM right around noon or so, allowing northwest or northerly winds to pick up, especially over the central highlands and vulnerable northern peaks where a few gusts may briefly approach 40-50 mph. No Wind Advisory is planned due to the localized and relatively brief nature of these winds. Outside of these central and northern zones, most areas will observe breezy conditions with gusts of 20-30 mph being more common. Temperatures will run within 3 to 5 degrees of seasonal climatology today. As the polar jet carries the upper trough farther east tonight, surface high pressure will build down the southern plains, including into west TX and eastern NM. This will keep temperatures cooler with a few locations (Raton, Springer, and Moriarty, and Estancia) within reach of freezing again. Once this current morning`s low temperatures are recorded and assessed, another Freeze Warning could be needed for the Estancia valley for tonight into Sunday morning. If the surface high were just a bit stronger and dewpoints a bit lower, freezing temperatures would be more widespread in eastern NM Sunday morning. During the daytime Sunday, the flow aloft will turn more zonal over NM with 700 mb winds ranging from 15-20 kt and a lee-side surface trough developing. Breezy conditions will consequently develop in northeastern NM with light breezes elsewhere. High temperatures will run near to slightly above normal, and mostly clear skies will prevail. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1134 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The next Pacific trough will cross the northern Rockies late Sunday night into Monday morning with a potent 145 kt jet at 300 mb paralleling the WY-CO border. This will spread strong ridge top winds over the northern NM mountains early Monday morning, and while the gradient aloft will relax into the afternoon, it will still produce widespread breezy to locally (in the central highlands) windy conditions. Temperatures would warm a few degrees more above climatology Monday, but a backdoor front will enter eastern NM Monday night, setting readings back 10-15 degrees going into Tuesday. Lighter breezes will be observed on Tuesday as a short-lived upper ridge builds over the southern Rockies in the wake of Monday`s progressive trough passage. Attention will then turn to the west southwest over the Pacific where a cut-off low will have been spinning aimlessly for days. This feature will finally get set into motion Tuesday night and Wednesday, moving inland over southern CA and the lower CO River basin as it seemingly reconnects with the polar jet. This low will draw up a plume of subtropical moisture ahead of it with PWATs advertised to increase to 1.0 to 1.5 inches over the Gulf of CA before getting drastically modified and diffused into MX and NM. Still, this should be sufficient moisture along with increasing large scale ascent in the diffluent flow preceding the low, all leading to scattered light showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday. Precipitation would turn less convective overnight, refocusing into the core of the low as it crosses near the NM-CO border. The low would not fully eject until Thursday when it is modeled to move into southwest KS, but precipitation chances would remain rather bleak for NM other than a few spotty north central zone locales. Shortwave ridging would fill into NM on Friday with southwesterly flow aloft beginning to replace it next Saturday, keeping a dry end to next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Cold mountain air will continue to seep southward through the late morning, leading to some gusty north winds in a few locations, particularly in the Rio Grande valley (KSKX, KSAF, and KABQ). Going into the afternoon, breezes will be moderately gusty (15 to 30 kt), generally from the northwest and north while clear skies and VFR conditions prevail. Winds will settle around sunset this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1134 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 There are no major or widespread fire weather concerns over the next several days. Winds will be breezy to locally strong today, Sunday, and again on Monday, but Energy Release Components are running near to below normal climatological values. Areas that will observe the strongest winds through early next week will tend to be along and just east of the northern to central highlands where gusts may occasionally reach 40 to 50 mph, particularly Monday morning. Otherwise, seasonal cooling and more freezing temperatures will lead to the onset of fuel curing for more northern and western NM zones. The wetting precipitation outlook is quite low for the next 7 days with scattered showers and storms over western and northern zones on Wednesday and Thursday likely producing amounts less than 0.10 inch. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 36 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 63 25 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 63 33 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 66 30 72 34 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 64 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 68 33 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 64 34 74 35 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 69 41 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 65 36 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 74 36 77 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 78 41 80 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 60 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 63 40 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 65 35 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 61 35 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 56 25 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 59 23 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 64 30 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 64 32 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 69 35 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 64 40 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 66 35 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 45 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 71 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 74 39 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 40 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 74 36 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 72 39 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 73 35 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 73 39 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 74 37 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 68 41 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 71 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 76 43 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 37 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 68 35 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 68 32 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 68 30 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 63 34 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 66 35 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 66 35 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 70 43 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 64 41 67 48 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 63 30 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 68 30 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 71 32 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 68 34 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 70 36 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 71 35 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 78 38 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 74 38 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 77 38 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 78 39 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 79 39 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 77 40 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 82 45 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 76 42 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 75 41 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ217-228. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for NMZ222. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52