620
FXUS65 KABQ 141121 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Isolated thunderstorms could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph
  across far eastern New Mexico for the next couple of afternoons.
  Gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms are also possible
  around the southern high terrain Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas
  Saturday through Tuesday, with near record high temperatures.
  Major heat risk is likely for the southeast plains and the
  lower Rio Grande Valley.

- Breezy to gusty west winds will return on Tuesday. Locally
  critical fire weather conditions may allow any recent dry
  lightning strikes to become new wildfire starts, especially over
  western NM where fuels are very dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Forecast confidence remains very high on widespread near-record heat
developing over the area this weekend. A 592dm H5 high centered near
Tuscon, AZ Friday evening will build to near 595dm over southwest NM
thru Sunday. This ridge is nearly +2 standard deviations above climo
and the average max strength typically observed for mid June. Very
dry air under the ridge with near-max solar radiation will help to
contribute to intense heat over the entire region. Today will be the
hottest day of the year so far, only to be followed by even hotter
temps on Sunday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday for the
ABQ metro where max temps will hover between 99 and 101F. Chaves and
Socorro counties have also been included where highs are likely to
reach 105F (>60% chance). Several active wildfires across AZ and
southwest NM may allow skies to become hazy for parts of the area
thru the weekend. The latest HRRR smoke guidance indicates the Four
Corners and lower RGV will be favored for potential air quality
deterioration. There may also be a few more high-based showers and
dry storms to contend with over the weekend, mainly over eastern NM
and the southern high terrain. Model DCAPE values average 1000-2000
J/kg in these areas which supports more downburst wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Red or green? Hope you like it hot either way because you won`t have
much of a choice early next week. High pressure ridging overhead
will continue to promote scorching hot temperature on Monday and
Tuesday, with many areas including Albuquerque, Roswell, and Clayton
look to approach record highs. Temperatures throughout the state
will be 5 to 13 degrees above average for mid June, but low lying
areas (especially along the lower Rio Grande and Pecos river
valleys) will see the greatest threat of dangerously hot 100+
temperatures. With moderate to major heat risk for many areas, avoid
being outside for long periods of time and make sure to stay well
hydrated to prevent heat illness. On Tuesday, an upper level trough
will push through the central Rockies, lowering pressure heights
throughout the region and cooling temperatures a couple of degrees
for central and western areas. However, 500 mb pressure heights will
still be in the 586 to 590 dm range, within the 75th percentile for
this time of year. Therefore, temperatures will still be quite hot,
particularly for eastern New Mexico where several records are
threatened. The trough on Tuesday will usher in some stronger and
drier westerly flow into the region. Daytime heating should be able
to mix down some stronger 30 to 35 kt 700 mb winds to the surface,
creating some breezy to gusty conditions during the afternoon. Lee-
side surface troughing in northeast New Mexico may also help to
strengthen winds for the central highlands and east plains where 35
to 40 mph gusts will be possible. Downsloping winds will also
further heat up the environment for areas east of the central
mountain chain, which may result in temperatures soaring close to
Excessive Heat criteria (110F) for Chaves county and a record tying
100 for Clayton.

Once the trough pushes east into the Great Plains, a moist backdoor
cold front will push through northeast New Mexico during the evening
and overnight hours on Tuesday. This front may produce some light
showers and thunderstorms for Union county late on Tuesday. With
greater moisture in place and a more moist southerly flow returning
to eastern New Mexico for the rest of the week, virga showers and
isolated thunderstorms may develop for areas along and east of the
central mountain chain during the afternoons. Meanwhile, pressure
heights will be on the rise once again as ridging builds over the
central CONUS, leading to more above average temperatures for New
Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Tranquil weather this morning will give way to deep mixing with
hot temps and low humidity this afternoon for most of the region.
Just enough residual moisture in the Sacramento Mts and southeast
plains may allow for a few high-based SHRA/TS with downburst wind
gusts >40KT possible. This activity will move east/southeast in
the window between 2pm and 8pm. Any lingering SHRA across eastern
NM this evening will dissipate to mid level clouds thru midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

There were nearly 200 dry lightning strikes recorded by the NLDN
across parts of Catron, Socorro, and Lincoln counties Friday, with
several hundred over northeast and east-central NM. These areas will
need to be monitored for potential fire starts given the upcoming
intense heat, prolonged single digit humidity, and eventual breezy
conditions Monday and Tuesday. ERC values are highest in the western
and southern high terrain where several RAWS sites are near or above
the 90th percentile. ERCs are lower farther north and east however
those values will likely trend higher over the next several days of
intense heat and very low humidity.

The unseasonably strong upper level ridge building north into the
region this weekend will begin breaking down Monday as an upper
level trough approaches from the west. Mixing heights beneath the
ridge over the weekend will peak between 17,000 and 19,000 ft AGL in
most areas with near-record hot temps and single digit RH. Southwest
breezes will then increase over central and western NM Monday as an
upper level trough approaches from the west. Wind gusts of 20 to 30
mph will be common along and west of the Cont Divide. The upper
level trough will cross the region on Tuesday and allow widespread
westerly breezes to develop with single digit humidity. West wind
gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common over the entire area. The Hot-
Dry-Windy Index exceeds the 90th percentile over portions of western
NM both Monday and Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch may be required for
portions of the area. Mixing heights decrease on Monday and Tuesday
with the passing trough but values will still peak between 14,000
and 16,000 ft AGL (>75th percentile height for June).

A backdoor cold front will slide into eastern NM in the wake of the
upper trough Tuesday night and Wednesday. Meanwhile, the upper level
ridge will build north again with warming temps, lighter winds, and
a few more high-based showers and dry storms possible thru Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  57  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  89  45  92  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  90  55  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  92  48  94  48 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  89  53  90  55 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................  93  51  95  54 /   0   0   5   0
Quemado.........................  91  55  93  57 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  93  61  94  64 /   0   0   5   5
Datil...........................  90  56  92  59 /   0   0  10   0
Reserve.........................  98  52  98  53 /   0   0   5   0
Glenwood........................ 101  57 103  59 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  84  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  88  61  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  89  57  91  59 /   0   0   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................  87  52  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  81  41  82  44 /   0   0   5   0
Angel Fire......................  82  39  83  39 /   0   0   5   0
Taos............................  90  48  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  87  51  87  53 /   5   0   5   0
Espanola........................  96  56  97  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  90  61  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  94  58  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  68  98  69 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  66 100  66 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  64 102  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  65 101  67 /   0   0   0   0
Belen........................... 100  60 101  62 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  99  63 101  64 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  99  60 101  59 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................ 100  64 101  65 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  99  61 101  62 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  95  65  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  98  65 100  67 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro......................... 103  66 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  61  93  62 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  95  62  97  63 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  93  56  96  57 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  52  94  53 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  87  57  90  58 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  93  58  95  59 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  92  58  94  59 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  96  65  97  66 /   0   0   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  90  63  91  63 /  10   0  20   5
Capulin.........................  87  53  87  54 /  10  10  10  10
Raton...........................  92  52  92  53 /  10  10   5   0
Springer........................  93  51  94  53 /   5   5   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  90  53  91  55 /   0   0   5   0
Clayton.........................  92  61  94  62 /   5  10   0  10
Roy.............................  90  57  92  57 /   5  10   5   5
Conchas.........................  98  63  99  63 /   0   5   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  96  61  96  62 /   0   5   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  96  64  98  64 /   0  10   0   5
Clovis..........................  97  65  98  66 /   5  10   0  10
Portales........................  99  65 100  65 /   5  10   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  99  65 101  64 /   0   5   0   5
Roswell......................... 104  69 105  69 /   5   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  97  63  97  64 /  10   0  10   0
Elk.............................  96  61  96  62 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ219-220-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...42