Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
384 FXUS65 KABQ 071127 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 527 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 520 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms return to areas of central and eastern NM today. Locally heavy rainfall will threaten flash flooding over low laying and poorly drained areas, including the Ruidoso area burn scars this afternoon and evening. - There is a marginal risk for a few thunderstorms to become strong to severe producing frequent lightning, hail, and strong wind gusts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 451 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Weather observations showing persisting 100% humidity and the NMDOT webcam at Clines Corners showing near zero visibility. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Central Highlands thru 10 am MDT. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A frontal boundary has advanced thru the gaps of the central mountain chain tonight bringing east canyon winds gusting 15 to 30mph thru Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Cooler temperatures and higher moisture highlighted by Td`s in the 40s and 50s lay in its way across eastern NM. Low stratus with splotches of patchy fog and mist also lay across parts of northeastern NM which will be slow to erode this morning. All of this underlays a synoptic troughing pattern over the western CONUS bringing southwesterly shear aloft over NM. HiRes CAMs are now biting on showers and thunderstorms favoring initiation along the leading edge of this cooler and more moist airmass along the south-central mountains and portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Modest SBCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg alongside stronger bulk shear of 40-50kts will allow for a few cells to become strong to severe supporting the SPC`s marginal risk thru central NM this afternoon. The cluster of initial storm cells moving northeastward off the south-central mountains will look to fizzle out over parts of eastern NM before the cluster of convection over the middle Rio Grande Valley is favored to drift southeastward becoming outflow dominant riding against the grain into surface southeasterly flow. A slight risk for excessive rainfall has been introduced to the central highlands southward to the Ruidoso area burn scars where two rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon and evening. Widespread 0.10" to 0.50" will favor this central swath of NM with localized amounts up to 2.00" possible where the heaviest rains occur. A Flash Flood Watch will be issued for the Ruidoso area burn scars. Showers will be slow to dissipate across eastern and central NM heading into Wednesday morning. Moisture advection advances a bit further west reaching the AZ border. Given the central portions of NM should be worked over well from Tuesday`s activity, instability will favor convective initiation along the Continental Divide Wednesday afternoon. Another marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in this area and the Rio Grande Valley where storms will be favored to go Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 An area of high pressure builds in from the TX Big Bend area Thursday, shunting northerly advection of sub-tropical moisture into AZ and the Four Corners area. Convective activity will shift to this area as a result. Numerical model guidance continues to trend into better agreement that an upper level trough over the PacNW will continue to stream remnant moisture from Hurricane Priscilla into the Desert Southwest, mainly AZ and the Four Corners region. Precipitation chances steadily shift west to east over the forecast area as the upper level trough moves west over the western CONUS, breaking down the ridge over TX and southeastern NM. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings along and east of the central mountain chain and generally north of U.S. Highway 60. In fact, near zero visibility was observed on the webcam near Clines Corners this past hour. As for terminals IFR/MVFR vis will mainly be focused along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts southward along the central highlands. East canyon winds continue at KSAF and KABQ. Northerly winds wrapping around the northern side of the Sandia Mts into KAEG did briefly reach KABQ this past hour, and a tempo group is introduced for that to potentially happen again this morning. Even if the Sunport sees northerly winds at the terminal, east canyon winds below Tijeras Canyon are likely to just have been pushed a bit south or southeast of the KABQ terminal. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms favored to develop over central NM today, spreading eastward over the central highlands and east-central plains late this afternoon and evening. MVFR conditions will accompany any of the stronger storms. Showers will be slow to taper off b/w KSRR and KROW tonight into Wednesday morning while low clouds redevelop over eastern NM and advance westward into portions of the Rio Grande Valley from KSAF to KABQ. Areas further west along the AZ border including KGUP and KFMN will stay VFR with lighter prevailing winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 No fire weather concerns through the next seven days. Cooler temperatures and higher moisture will be entrenched across eastern NM today and Wednesday. Otherwise, prevailing winds and humidity will remain notably outside critical fire weather thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 79 52 79 55 / 0 10 10 10 Dulce........................... 76 41 70 44 / 5 30 40 30 Cuba............................ 72 46 68 47 / 30 30 60 40 Gallup.......................... 79 46 77 49 / 0 5 20 20 El Morro........................ 75 48 71 48 / 20 20 50 30 Grants.......................... 74 47 72 48 / 30 30 60 40 Quemado......................... 79 49 74 49 / 30 10 40 30 Magdalena....................... 74 52 70 52 / 60 40 50 30 Datil........................... 73 48 69 48 / 40 30 60 40 Reserve......................... 83 48 77 49 / 10 10 40 30 Glenwood........................ 87 55 80 54 / 10 10 30 30 Chama........................... 69 41 64 42 / 10 30 50 30 Los Alamos...................... 67 50 66 51 / 40 40 60 30 Pecos........................... 62 46 65 47 / 20 50 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 44 66 46 / 20 20 30 20 Red River....................... 60 38 58 39 / 20 20 30 10 Angel Fire...................... 63 34 63 34 / 30 20 30 10 Taos............................ 71 45 68 46 / 20 20 20 20 Mora............................ 61 42 66 42 / 30 40 50 20 Espanola........................ 75 50 72 50 / 30 40 50 30 Santa Fe........................ 67 50 66 50 / 20 50 50 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 49 69 49 / 30 50 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 56 72 57 / 60 60 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 55 75 56 / 60 50 40 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 54 76 55 / 60 50 40 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 55 75 55 / 60 50 40 40 Belen........................... 81 53 78 54 / 70 50 40 40 Bernalillo...................... 79 54 75 54 / 50 50 40 40 Bosque Farms.................... 80 52 77 52 / 70 50 40 40 Corrales........................ 79 54 75 54 / 50 50 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 80 52 77 53 / 70 50 40 40 Placitas........................ 74 53 71 54 / 50 60 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 79 54 74 55 / 50 50 40 40 Socorro......................... 83 57 78 57 / 60 40 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 49 67 50 / 60 60 50 40 Tijeras......................... 70 51 69 52 / 60 60 50 40 Edgewood........................ 67 49 69 48 / 60 60 50 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 47 70 45 / 60 60 50 30 Clines Corners.................. 59 46 65 48 / 60 70 50 30 Mountainair..................... 69 49 70 49 / 70 60 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 70 49 70 48 / 70 60 50 30 Carrizozo....................... 74 54 72 53 / 50 50 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 63 49 65 48 / 60 60 40 20 Capulin......................... 56 46 67 47 / 30 20 10 5 Raton........................... 58 47 70 46 / 30 20 10 5 Springer........................ 60 48 72 46 / 30 20 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 54 46 65 46 / 40 50 40 20 Clayton......................... 55 50 70 55 / 30 30 10 0 Roy............................. 56 49 66 51 / 40 40 20 5 Conchas......................... 61 53 73 55 / 40 50 30 5 Santa Rosa...................... 61 52 70 53 / 40 60 50 20 Tucumcari....................... 61 53 74 54 / 40 50 40 0 Clovis.......................... 65 55 74 56 / 50 70 30 0 Portales........................ 66 55 74 56 / 50 60 30 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 55 72 56 / 50 80 40 5 Roswell......................... 72 59 77 59 / 40 70 30 5 Picacho......................... 69 54 71 54 / 50 60 40 10 Elk............................. 69 51 68 51 / 50 50 40 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for NMZ223. Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24