Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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136 FXUS65 KABQ 300631 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1231 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 - A heightened risk of flooding continues across north central and northeast New Mexico on Wednesday. Continue to expect waves of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday evening. Have multiple ways to receive warnings. - Localized river flooding will continue Wednesday. Low-lying farmland, fields, low water crossings, and property near rivers may experience minor flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Polo`s remnant moisture is currently moving across north central and eastern NM ahead of an upper low over east central AZ early this morning. This remnant moisture will continue to exit northeast of the state come mid to late this morning as the upper low circulation moves into western NM. The upper low will move across the I-40 corridor during the day Wednesday with wraparound moisture (PWATs 0.6 to 0.9 inches) on the northern and western side of the low resulting in scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms for areas along and north of U.S. 60. The highest coverage of showers and storms across north central and northeast NM where the best synoptic lift and surface upslope flow will reside. Rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches across far north central and far northeast NM could result in more flooding. A moderate risk (40% chance within 25 miles) for excessive rainfall will continue across far northeast NM. East central and southern NM look to remain fairly dry due to a dryslot moving over these areas ahead and south of the upper low circulation. With the continued precip and cloud cover across western and central NM, high temperatures will be in the 50s to mid 60s with 70s across eastern NM due to this part of the state seeing more sunshine. Some lingering rain across far northeast NM Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the upper low exits this part of the state. Drier air aloft combined with the saturated low levels will result in some fog across valley locations in western and central NM early to mid Thursday morning. The upper low moves into the central Great Plains Thursday with breezy to gusty north winds across northeast and east central NM behind a backdoor front. High temperatures rebound closer to average across western and central NM but cool down slightly across eastern NM due to the effects of the backdoor front. The backdoor front pushes through the gaps of the central mountain chain Thursday evening resulting in a light east canyon wind across eastern Santa Fe and Albuquerque and Carrizozo. Upslope flow and lingering troughing aloft could result in some light showers along the east central plains and east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains overnight Thursday into Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 A 590 to 592 dam high at 500 mb over the eastern Pacific Thursday moves east to over the Great Basin and Four Corners Friday and this weekend resulting in a splendid 1st weekend of October. High temperatures outside of mountain peaks will be in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Fog will be a concern, especially in western and central valley locations, early to mid Friday morning spreading to east central areas early to mid Saturday morning due to the saturated grounds in place. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Rain will continue to impact much of northwest, central and eastern NM overnight. An isolated thunderstorm remains possible near KROW, but confidence of occurrence is low. Precipitation will diminish across southern areas overnight, but showers will continue across northern NM. In fact, numerous showers will persist through Wednesday in this area. As the upper low crosses NM today, additional isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will develop areawide, but again, storm coverage will not be as great as the last 24 hours. IFR to MVFR cigs and vsbys will be common areawide overnight, either within showers themselves, or after showers have ended and low clouds fill in. Areas of fog may develop overnight, though it`s difficult to pinpoint where the favored areas will be. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 No critical fire weather concerns are expected through this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 66 49 73 50 / 100 30 0 0 Dulce........................... 60 37 72 37 / 100 70 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 41 68 43 / 90 50 0 0 Gallup.......................... 60 41 72 42 / 70 20 0 0 El Morro........................ 56 39 69 40 / 70 30 0 0 Grants.......................... 61 43 69 44 / 50 20 0 0 Quemado......................... 57 45 69 44 / 80 40 5 0 Magdalena....................... 59 46 66 47 / 60 10 0 5 Datil........................... 56 43 66 44 / 60 20 0 0 Reserve......................... 63 45 73 45 / 60 20 0 0 Glenwood........................ 68 47 77 49 / 70 20 0 0 Chama........................... 55 38 64 37 / 100 80 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 45 66 45 / 90 70 0 0 Pecos........................... 61 42 65 41 / 80 30 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 41 62 39 / 100 90 0 0 Red River....................... 50 34 51 32 / 100 100 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 54 30 56 28 / 100 90 5 0 Taos............................ 60 39 65 37 / 100 90 0 0 Mora............................ 59 42 61 40 / 90 60 5 0 Espanola........................ 65 46 72 45 / 90 80 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 45 66 44 / 90 40 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 44 69 44 / 80 40 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 50 71 50 / 80 30 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 49 73 49 / 70 30 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 50 75 50 / 60 20 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 51 73 51 / 70 30 0 0 Belen........................... 67 49 74 50 / 60 20 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 50 74 50 / 80 30 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 67 48 74 48 / 60 20 0 0 Corrales........................ 67 50 74 50 / 70 30 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 67 50 74 50 / 60 20 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 49 71 49 / 80 30 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 50 73 50 / 70 30 0 0 Socorro......................... 69 51 74 53 / 70 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 44 66 44 / 80 30 0 0 Tijeras......................... 60 46 68 46 / 80 30 5 0 Edgewood........................ 62 44 66 43 / 70 30 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 64 43 67 42 / 60 20 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 60 43 63 43 / 60 20 0 0 Mountainair..................... 61 43 65 43 / 80 30 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 60 44 65 45 / 70 30 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 64 49 67 50 / 50 20 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 60 44 59 45 / 30 10 10 30 Capulin......................... 59 42 57 40 / 100 90 60 30 Raton........................... 63 43 63 39 / 100 100 40 10 Springer........................ 65 46 67 41 / 90 90 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 61 44 64 42 / 80 40 0 0 Clayton......................... 71 50 64 48 / 90 70 30 30 Roy............................. 67 48 66 45 / 60 60 5 5 Conchas......................... 75 54 72 53 / 30 30 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 71 52 70 51 / 20 20 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 77 53 71 52 / 10 10 10 20 Clovis.......................... 78 53 70 54 / 5 5 5 10 Portales........................ 79 54 72 56 / 5 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 76 54 72 55 / 10 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 78 53 74 57 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 73 50 68 51 / 0 0 5 30 Elk............................. 71 47 66 49 / 5 5 5 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ203-210-211-213>217-227- 228-230. Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ212-218>226- 229-231>240. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...34