Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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734 FXUS65 KABQ 260826 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 226 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeast and east central areas today into tonight, but the risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is subsiding. - River flooding will continue over parts of central and northern New Mexico today. - After dry weather mid week, showers, thunderstorms, and very high terrain snow are forecast during the latter half of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026 Patchy fog is forecast in spots from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward until mid morning. Locations with pooling water on the ground from recent heavy rainfall will be favored for the fog, which will likely be dense and make travel hazardous in spots. As the second in a series of two, back-to-back, storm systems that brought unprecedented flooding to parts of the forecast area exits the region to the northeast, a weaker tertiary disturbance will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms going over the south central mountains, southeast, and east central areas today into the late night hours tonight. PWATs will continue to trend downard, so the risk of locally heavy rainfall is low. NBM 90th Percentile QPF suggest a few parts of the southeast plains could accumulate another 0.75" of rain, which could result in nuissance flooding where the ground is saturated from the recent rounds of heavy rain over the past few days. Otherwise, drier and warmer weather is forecast today through Wednesday night as an active storm track north of NM draws dry west and southwest flow over the forecast area. High temperatures will climb near 1991-2020 averages areawide starting Tuesday, then as much as 8 degrees above the averages on the eastern plains Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026 During the latter half of the week, models continue to depict an upper level low pressure system stalling over the Pacific NW coast. It will draw a rich return flow of Gulf moisture into the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase in coverage over southern areas Thursday afternoon, and areawide Thursday night through Friday night, as a couple of shortwave troughs cross NM in succession from the southwest. GEFS PWATs peak Friday and Friday night around 180-250 percent of normal, which is quite high. However, actual PWATs are only forecast to vary from 0.50-1.00" from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. The main wave of precip with the first shortwave trough will cross the southeast third of the forecast area Friday morning when the instability isn`t very strong, so the risk of locally heavy rainfall will be minimal. Similarly, the main wave of precip with the second shortwave trough looks to cross Friday night and Saturday morning, limiting instability and the risk of locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures at 700 mb look to bottom out around +2 to +4 C Friday and Friday night, indicating the highest peaks over 10K feet will probably accumulate a few inches of snow. There are significant differences in track, depth, and timing, but models generally depict a stronger and colder storm system tracking southeastward over the forecast area early next week with precip breaking out over western areas Saturday night, then becoming widespread across the forecast area on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the eastern plains and south central mountains for the remainder of tonight. Showers and storms will then linger over far east central areas until mid morning Monday. Monday afternoon and night scattered showers and thunderstorms will then return to the south central mountains, southeast plains, and east central plains. Otherwise, widespread MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds will continue east of the central mountain chain for the remainder of tonight until mid morning Monday, except into the afternoon in some east central and southeast locations. Along and west of the central mountain chain, patchy fog will impact many locations for the remainder of the night until mid morning Monday, including KGUP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026 The main fire weather concern today and tonight, then again during the latter half of the week and the weekend, will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow. Southwest winds will probably gust in the 25-35 mph range over northeast areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, areas of poor ventilation are forecast daily this week, becoming most widespread Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 38 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 57 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 36 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 63 31 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 62 32 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 63 33 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 65 35 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 62 42 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 61 36 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 68 35 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 73 41 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 53 28 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 39 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 61 34 62 36 / 0 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 35 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 49 26 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 55 19 55 23 / 0 0 5 0 Taos............................ 59 27 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 60 29 63 32 / 0 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 64 37 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 39 62 39 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 37 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 46 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 43 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 45 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 67 44 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 43 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 67 42 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 66 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 67 44 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 64 43 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 44 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 69 49 72 49 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 40 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 62 42 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 62 35 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 63 33 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 60 40 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 63 40 64 41 / 0 5 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 63 41 63 42 / 0 10 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 66 47 66 48 / 20 20 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 42 62 43 / 30 10 5 0 Capulin......................... 59 38 64 38 / 0 5 5 0 Raton........................... 63 34 68 33 / 0 5 5 0 Springer........................ 65 32 71 31 / 0 0 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 61 34 65 36 / 0 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 66 46 69 46 / 10 10 5 0 Roy............................. 62 40 68 38 / 0 10 5 0 Conchas......................... 69 48 74 47 / 10 10 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 47 72 47 / 5 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 49 74 50 / 30 20 5 0 Clovis.......................... 66 52 71 52 / 50 60 10 0 Portales........................ 67 52 72 50 / 40 60 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 51 71 49 / 40 40 10 0 Roswell......................... 65 52 70 48 / 30 40 10 0 Picacho......................... 65 46 71 46 / 40 20 10 0 Elk............................. 65 44 69 44 / 40 20 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44