104
FXUS65 KABQ 041930
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
130 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid
  next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning,
  erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding mainly over
  central, western, and northern areas.

- A high risk of flash flooding is forecast on the Ruidoso burn
  scars tomorrow afternoon.

- Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New
  Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Low and mid level clouds have been lingering across western and
central NM this morning due to a plume of monsoon moisture overhead
between a unseasonably deep upper low over the Pacific NW and a broad
upper high over the south central U.S. PWATs under the plume are 0.8
to 1 inch across western NM and 1 to 1.4 inches across central and
eastern NM with the highest PWATS across south central NM. The
widespread cloud cover across western and much of central NM this
morning should result in cooler afternoon temperatures, less intense
thunderstorm activity, and thus lower rainfall rates this afternoon
despite part of these areas of the state being under a slight risk
for excessive rainfall. More isolated activity is expected across
the eastern plains this afternoon, but will be more capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall due to clearer skies this morning
and hotter temperatures in the mid to upper 90s resulting in more
instability this afternoon. Any shower and thunderstorm activity
should taper off around to just after sunset.

On Saturday, the broad upper high over the south central U.S. looks
to somewhat consolidate into a 593 dam high at 500 mb from Missouri
southwest to El Paso. Showers and thunderstorms will favor the
southern and central mountain ranges, but with the upper high
overhead storm motion will be more slow and erratic especially
across the Sacramento Mountains. Storms will get going across these
mountain ranges by the late morning hours Saturday peaking mid
afternoon before moving into the nearby lower elevations and
tapering off mid to late evening. With both the HREF and RRFS
showing 3 hour rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches over the Ruidoso
burn scars between 12 PM to 3 PM due to slow and erratic storm
motion have opted to issue a Flood Watch for the area. Like today,
showers and storms will taper off around to just after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A 593 to 594 dam upper high at 500 mb will be centered over the OK
and TX panhandles with the western portion nosing in eastern NM
Sunday. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will once again get going
across the western and central high terrain midday with an overall
storm motion north-northwest south of I-40 and north-northeast along
and north of I-40. Storm motion across the Sacramento Mountains
Sunday afternoon should help direct storms west and away from the
Ruidoso burn scars. Once again, any storm will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in low lying,
poor drainage, and urban areas.

The upper low over the Pacific NW finally moves inland to over the
northern Rockies Monday shifting the upper high east to over
Oklahoma, Missouri and western Arkansas. The position of these two
upper level features will help position the monsoon plume from
southwest to northeast NM with an overall storm motion to the
northeast at 10 to 20 mph. The upper low exits northeast to the
Dakotas and central Canada Tuesday flattening the upper high from
eastern NM to the mid Atlantic and strengthening to 597 dam over the
mid Mississippi River Valley. The monsoon plume and thus better
shower and storm coverage will remain across western and central NM
due to this part of the state remaining on the western flank of the
upper high circulation. The upper high looks to shift back to over
New Mexico as early as Wednesday. This will help disrupt the monsoon
plume with recycled moisture helping to keep diurnal shower and
storm chances across the higher terrain. PWATS looks to decrease
from 0.9 to 1.3 inches Monday to 0.8 to 1 inch late next week due to
the upper high moving overhead. Highs next week will be in the upper
80s to mid 90s across lower elevations of western and central NM and
mid to upper 90s across eastern NM which is slightly above average
for early to mid September


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across central NM, numerous
showers and storms across the southwest and west central
mountains, and isolated storms across eastern NM this afternoon
and early this evening due to a plume of monsoon moisture
overhead. Storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall and brief MVFR conditions along with gusty and erratic
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Showers and storms taper off late this
evening with gradually clearing skies early to mid Saturday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

No critical fire weather concerns through late next week. Diurnal
showers and thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain of western
and central NM and nearby lower elevations through late next week.
Coverage looks to be highest through Monday due to a plume of
monsoon moisture overhead. Storm coverage across these areas
gradually lowers mid to late next week as the upper high over the
south central U.S. looks to shift west to over the state. Storms
will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding, especially over recent burn scars.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  88  60  89 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  84  46  89 /  10   5   0  10
Cuba............................  55  85  56  86 /  20   5   0   5
Gallup..........................  53  83  54  87 /  10   0   5  10
El Morro........................  52  80  54  83 /  40  10  20  40
Grants..........................  55  82  57  86 /  50   5  10  30
Quemado.........................  55  80  56  84 /  30  30  20  70
Magdalena.......................  59  81  61  84 /  40  30  20  30
Datil...........................  55  79  57  81 /  50  50  40  60
Reserve.........................  54  84  55  90 /  30  30  20  40
Glenwood........................  57  88  61  96 /  20  10  20  20
Chama...........................  49  78  51  82 /  10  20   0  10
Los Alamos......................  61  82  62  84 /  30  30  10  10
Pecos...........................  58  82  58  85 /  30  20  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  55  81  56  83 /  10  30  10  10
Red River.......................  47  71  48  74 /  10  40  10  30
Angel Fire......................  42  76  41  79 /  20  50  10  50
Taos............................  54  84  54  87 /  10  20   5  10
Mora............................  54  80  54  82 /  20  60  10  60
Espanola........................  61  87  61  91 /  20  20   5  10
Santa Fe........................  61  84  63  86 /  20  10   5  20
Santa Fe Airport................  60  87  61  89 /  30   5   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  88  69  93 /  20   0  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  89  66  93 /  20   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  91  66  95 /  20   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  89  68  94 /  20   0   5  10
Belen...........................  63  91  64  94 /  30   0   5   5
Bernalillo......................  66  91  67  95 /  30   0  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  62  91  64  94 /  30   0   5  10
Corrales........................  66  90  67  95 /  20   0  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  63  91  65  94 /  30   0   5   5
Placitas........................  65  89  67  91 /  30   0  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  66  89  67  94 /  20   0  10  10
Socorro.........................  67  91  69  95 /  30  10  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  83  62  87 /  30   5  10  40
Tijeras.........................  61  86  63  87 /  30   5   5  40
Edgewood........................  57  85  59  88 /  30  10   5  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  86  57  89 /  30  10  10  40
Clines Corners..................  58  85  59  86 /  30  20  10  30
Mountainair.....................  57  85  59  87 /  30  10  10  40
Gran Quivira....................  58  86  60  87 /  20  20  10  40
Carrizozo.......................  63  86  64  89 /  20  40  10  60
Ruidoso.........................  57  81  58  82 /  20  80  10  70
Capulin.........................  59  86  58  86 /  20  30  20  30
Raton...........................  56  89  56  89 /  20  40  10  20
Springer........................  57  92  57  91 /  20  30  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  57  85  57  86 /  20  20  10  40
Clayton.........................  67  95  66  93 /  20  30  30   5
Roy.............................  61  90  61  89 /  20  30  30  10
Conchas.........................  67  99  68  97 /  20  10  30  10
Santa Rosa......................  65  94  66  92 /  20  10  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  69 100  70  97 /  20  10  30  10
Clovis..........................  68  97  68  96 /  20  20  20   5
Portales........................  68  98  69  97 /  20  20  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  67  97  69  97 /  20  10  10   5
Roswell.........................  69 101  70  98 /  20  10  10   0
Picacho.........................  62  91  62  92 /  20  50  10  10
Elk.............................  59  87  59  89 /  10  50  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71