246
FXUS65 KABQ 070813
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
213 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and dry thunderstorms over parts
  of western and central New Mexico Monday and Tuesday will lead
  to strong and erratic downburst winds, dry lightning, and a risk
  of new fire starts.

- Dry and breezy winds along with hot temperatures will result in
  an increasing risk for rapid fire spread each afternoon through
  Tuesday across far western New Mexico and across northeast New
  Mexico on Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico
  Tuesday could producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande
  Valley and eastern New Mexico this upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

An onslaught of the typical June hazards is in store for the area
over the next few days, including; heat, downburst wind gusts,
blowing dust, dry lightning strikes, a few strong storms, and fire
weather.

An upper level trough approaching from the west coast will spread
much drier air and westerly breezes over NM today. Downslope flow
into eastern NM will trend max temps 10 to 15F warmer than recent
days. Highs will top out in the upper 90s to low 100s over eastern
NM with widespread 80s and 90s over central and western NM. Cirrus
will increase over the area today so expect periods of filtered
sunshine. A couple virga showers cannot be ruled out today around
the southwest high terrain where mid level moisture begins sneaking
north ahead of the approaching trough. Temps tonight will be mild
with many areas staying 5 to 10F above normal.

A 55 to 65kt upper level jet then spreads across the region Monday
as the upper level trough enters the Great Basin. Increasing lift
beneath the upper jet along with improving mid level moisture and
strong heating will help to develop scattered high-based showers
and isolated dry storms along the Cont Divide Monday afternoon.
Bulk shear of 30 to 40kt with lifted indices near -2C, MUCAPE
near 200 J/kg, and DCAPE up to 1200 J/kg support downburst wind
gusts. The latest HREF shows ensemble max gusts of 50 to 60 mph
impacting west-central NM Monday afternoon before surging east
into the RGV during the evening. Areas of blowing dust may also
impact the region as western NM remains the driest part of the
state. A couple small areas of wetting rainfall (>0.10") are also
possible from some of this activity as PWATs will be increasing to
near 0.70" with mid level moisture advection continuing thru the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Any dry lightning strikes over western NM Monday will be confronted
with single digit humidity and breezy southwest winds on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the upper level jet dynamics and mid level moisture plume
will shift into eastern NM. Moist low level return flow over east-
central and southeast NM Tuesday will help to improve chances for
showers and storms with larger footprints of wetting rainfall. Dry
lightning strikes may still occur on the western periphery of the
precip shield as drier air works in from western NM. A couple strong
storms cannot be ruled out as well over eastern NM given the better
shear profiles and greater instability.

Southwest to west winds will become breezy over eastern NM on
Wednesday which will elevate the risk for fire starts in areas
where grasses are still very dry. Max temps will be hot again over
eastern NM Wednesday with many areas topping out in the upper 90s
to low 100s.

By Thursday, another upper level trough will race east across the
northern Rockies while a 590dm H5 ridge becomes more well-defined
over TX and northern MX. Models are coming into better agreement
showing a strong backdoor cold front entering eastern NM but the
timing is still out of sorts. Overall, a more tranquil day is
expected with hot temps, low humidity, and relatively lighter
winds. If the backdoor cold front arrives faster than currently
shown, eastern NM will see breezy northeast winds and cooling
temps by Thursday afternoon.

Friday through Sunday will feature a more typical look for mid June
as the upper level high begins drifting west/northwest into southern
NM and AZ. Low and mid level moisture is shown spreading northwest
into the southwest CONUS which kicks off daily rounds of showers and
storms. For now, the greater precip chances will be focused over
southern and eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Areas of turbulence and LLWS will occur tonight as winds aloft
strengthen ahead of an upper level trough. Gusty showers over
central and eastern NM late this evening will taper off thru
sunrise. Increasing cirrus will spread over the region Sunday with
stronger southwest winds in the afternoon. A couple high-based
virga showers are still possible near the southwest high terrain
and lower RGV after 3pm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A dry upper level trough approaching from the west today will spread
single digit minimum humidity across much of NM. Breezy west winds
along and north of the I-40 corridor will generate a few hours of
elevated critical fire weather. Temps will also be hot with mixing
heights averaging 15 to 16kft.

Breezy southwest winds will develop Monday with more single digit
humidity in many areas. Just enough mid level moisture will slide
into the area ahead of the upper trough to develop scattered virga
showers and isolated dry storms over western NM. Any strikes that do
occur Monday will be problematic as winds are trending stronger for
Tuesday with critical fire weather likely along and west of the Cont
Divide. A Fire Weather Watch will be issued. Scattered showers and
wet/dry storms will focus over central and eastern NM on Tuesday.
Dry storm coverage may even be scattered with LAL 6 potential for
the western periphery of the precip. The risk of more fire starts
will remain a concern since southwest winds have also trended
stronger on Wednesday with even more widespread single digit
humidity. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed for parts of the
area Wednesday.

Upper level high pressure will develop over northern MX by Thursday
while a moist backdoor cold front slides into eastern NM. The upper
level high drifts west and northwest toward southern AZ Friday thru
the weekend with low level moisture increasing into NM. This may
lead to increasing chances for showers and storms over parts of the
region over the weekend but model agreement on precip coverage is
poor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  57  93  56 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  86  47  88  47 /   0   0  10  30
Cuba............................  85  53  86  54 /   0   0  10  30
Gallup..........................  85  47  87  48 /   0   0   5   5
El Morro........................  82  51  84  52 /   0   0  10  10
Grants..........................  87  51  88  52 /   0   0  20  20
Quemado.........................  84  52  86  53 /   0   0  10  20
Magdalena.......................  86  59  86  61 /   0   0  10   5
Datil...........................  83  53  83  56 /   0   0  10  10
Reserve.........................  89  48  91  49 /   0   0  10   5
Glenwood........................  93  50  96  52 /   0   0   5   0
Chama...........................  79  45  81  46 /   0   0  10  30
Los Alamos......................  84  60  85  60 /   0   0  10  20
Pecos...........................  85  53  87  54 /   0   0  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  83  51  83  52 /   0   0  10  10
Red River.......................  74  44  75  44 /   0   0  10  10
Angel Fire......................  78  40  79  41 /   0   0  10  10
Taos............................  86  52  87  53 /   0   0  10  10
Mora............................  83  51  85  52 /   0   0  10  10
Espanola........................  92  57  93  58 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Fe........................  86  57  87  58 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  88  56  90  58 /   0   0  10   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  66  93  66 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  65  94  65 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  63  96  62 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  63  94  63 /   0   0  10  10
Belen...........................  96  61  96  61 /   0   0   5   5
Bernalillo......................  95  62  95  62 /   0   0  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  96  59  95  59 /   0   0   5   5
Corrales........................  96  62  96  62 /   0   0  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  96  58  95  58 /   0   0   5   5
Placitas........................  91  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  95  63  95  63 /   0   0  10  10
Socorro.........................  97  66  98  67 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  59  88  59 /   0   0  10   5
Tijeras.........................  88  60  89  60 /   0   0  10   5
Edgewood........................  89  58  90  58 /   0   0  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  51  91  52 /   0   0  10   5
Clines Corners..................  85  56  87  57 /   0   0  10  10
Mountainair.....................  88  57  90  58 /   0   0  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  87  57  89  58 /   0   0  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  91  64  93  64 /   0   0  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  83  57  85  58 /   0   0  10   0
Capulin.........................  87  53  89  53 /   0   0  10  10
Raton...........................  91  51  92  52 /   0   0  10  10
Springer........................  92  52  93  53 /   0   0  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  87  53  88  54 /   0   0  10  10
Clayton.........................  93  62  96  62 /   5   0   0   5
Roy.............................  91  57  92  59 /   0   0  10  10
Conchas......................... 100  60 101  65 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  96  62  98  63 /   0   0  10   5
Tucumcari....................... 100  64 103  68 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  97  64  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  98  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  99  63 100  66 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 102  65 103  68 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  62  94  61 /   0   0   5   0
Elk.............................  90  59  91  59 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NMZ101-105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42