721
FXUS65 KABQ 171122 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Scattered slow-moving storms will favor the western and northern
  mountains today. There is a low risk of flash flooding areawide.
  Storm coverage becomes more isolated Tuesday.

- Smoke from the Frijoles fire will continue to impact air
  quality across portions of northern New Mexico this week.

- Temperatures trend hotter this week. Major heat risk is forecast
  for the lower elevations of central New Mexico and the southeast
  plains, including Albuquerque and Roswell, Wednesday through
  the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

An elongated ridge blankets the southern tier of the US today,
extending from southern California all the way to the Georgia
coastline. Cold pools from Sunday`s storms will continue spreading
out tonight, with much of this moisture sloshing into western NM.
The uptick in sfc moisture will increase the overall coverage of
storms this afternoon with at least low chances of rain in all areas
outside of the far northwest and far southeast portions of the
state. The highest rain chances will be along the Continental Divide
and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains where PWATs will be in the 0.8-
1.1" range. Steering flow will be weak, but a subtle inverted trough
in northern Mexico will add a slight easterly component to storm
motions. A Flash Flood Watch was considered for the Hermits Peak
Calf Canyon burn scar, but models were not consistently showing
rainfall amounts capable of producing flash flooding over the burn
scar. If flash flooding were to occur, it would likely be over the
southwest portion of the burn scar since storms will likely slowly
trek southward along the ridgeline of the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Rising temperatures aloft will tamper instability
somewhat today so rainfall rates will struggle to rise above
1"/hour. 90th percentile rainfall amounts from the HREF generally
show light amounts areawide, with very isolated pockets of 0.75"+.
While an isolated instance or two of flash flooding cannot be ruled
out, the overall flash flood risk will be low areawide today.

The passage of the inverted trough to the south will act to scour
out moisture for Tuesday. Storm coverage will trend much lower, with
only isolated afternoon storms over the peaks of the northern
mountains and the southwest high terrain. The drier air will
translate to warmer afternoon temperatures, with highs rising back
above average areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Ridging will amplify over The Great Basin on Wednesday, with the
centroid of the ridge setting up over the Four Corners. A shortwave
moving into the High Plains of Colorado Wednesday afternoon will
send a backdoor front southward into eastern New Mexico Wednesday
night, replenishing moisture east of the central mountain chain.
This will push PWATs slightly above normal (per GEFS and EPS
guidance) and translate to a slightly more active day Thursday, with
storm coverage highest along the central mountain chain. Recycled
moisture will make Friday a repeat of Thursday, with outflow
boundaries determining exactly where moisture pools.

The Four Corners high will slowly shift eastward late week,
centering itself around the NM/CO border. The high will also be
quite strong, with 500 mb heights 594 to 598 dam over New Mexico. So
despite near average moisture, storm coverage will be on the low
side, with isolated to scattered storms and a relatively low risk of
flash flooding.

Long-term guidance is in good agreement that the ridge will continue
slowly moving eastward into Texas and Oklahoma next weekend. This
will place southerly flow aloft over New Mexico and open up the
region to the advection of sub-tropical moisture. The main moisture
plume will likely remain off to the west over California and
Arizona, but it looks like western NM could be in the fringes of
this moisture plume by next weekend. Temperatures may cool a few
degrees across the west next weekend, but central and eastern areas
will remain hot with well-above normal highs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
Scattered storms this afternoon will favor the high terrain of
western and northern New Mexico. Storm motions will be slow
towards the southwest, with storms moving off the terrain into
the lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening. Storms
will taper off after 00Z, with only a few lingering showers after
03Z. Gusty and erratic winds up to 40 knots will be the main
concern with convection this afternoon/evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Scattered showers and storms today will focus over the high terrain
of western and northern New Mexico. Steering flow will be weak, with
slow and erratic storm motions in most areas. Given the slow
steering flow, wetting rainfall will be hard to come by in lower
elevation locales.

Storm coverage trends lower on Tuesday as moisture is scoured out.
Isolated activity will favor the peaks of the northern mountains and
the southwest high terrain. A backdoor front will replenish moisture
across the east Wednesday into Thursday, translating to an uptick in
storm coverage. Isolated to scattered coverage favors the western
and northern mountains Friday through next weekend, with low chances
in the eastern plains and the lower elevations of central New
Mexico.

Hot temperatures are forecast areawide all week, with highs
generally running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Afternoon humidities
will be low as well, with values bottoming out between 15 and 25%
each day. Prevailing winds will generally be light through the next
seven days outside of briefly gusty and erratic outflow winds near
showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  65  95  65 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  90  50  92  51 /  10   5   5   0
Cuba............................  87  57  90  59 /  30  10   5  10
Gallup..........................  89  57  90  59 /  20  10   5   5
El Morro........................  83  55  85  57 /  50  10  30   5
Grants..........................  87  57  89  59 /  50  20  20  10
Quemado.........................  84  57  86  59 /  50  20  30  10
Magdalena.......................  84  63  86  64 /  40  20  20   0
Datil...........................  80  57  82  59 /  50  10  20   5
Reserve.........................  89  56  89  58 /  60  10  30   5
Glenwood........................  93  61  94  64 /  70  10  30   0
Chama...........................  83  50  85  52 /  10   5   5   0
Los Alamos......................  85  61  88  63 /  50  10  30   0
Pecos...........................  83  56  88  58 /  70  20  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  84  56  86  58 /  20  10  10   5
Red River.......................  74  47  77  48 /  40  20  10   5
Angel Fire......................  79  38  82  42 /  50  20  10   0
Taos............................  87  53  90  55 /  20  10   5   5
Mora............................  81  51  86  54 /  60  20  30   0
Espanola........................  92  60  95  62 /  30  10   5   5
Santa Fe........................  85  61  89  64 /  60  10  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  89  59  91  61 /  50  10   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  67  95  70 /  60  20   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  65  95  68 /  40  20   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  64  97  67 /  30  20   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  67  96  70 /  40  10   5   0
Belen...........................  94  63  96  65 /  30  10   5   0
Bernalillo......................  94  65  97  68 /  40  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  93  62  96  65 /  30  10   5   0
Corrales........................  95  66  97  69 /  40  10   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  93  64  96  66 /  30  10   5   0
Placitas........................  90  65  93  67 /  50  10   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  93  66  96  69 /  40  10   5   0
Socorro.........................  95  68  97  69 /  20  10   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  60  89  63 /  60  20   5   0
Tijeras.........................  87  62  89  64 /  50  20   0   0
Edgewood........................  88  56  91  59 /  40  20  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  88  54  92  57 /  40  20   5   0
Clines Corners..................  83  57  87  60 /  40  20   5   5
Mountainair.....................  87  57  90  61 /  40  20   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  86  58  88  60 /  30  20   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  88  63  90  65 /  30  10   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  81  57  83  58 /  30  10  30   5
Capulin.........................  82  57  87  57 /  30  20   5   5
Raton...........................  85  53  90  56 /  40  10   5   0
Springer........................  88  54  93  56 /  40  10   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  83  55  89  57 /  40  10  10   0
Clayton.........................  89  63  95  65 /  10  20   0   5
Roy.............................  86  59  91  61 /  10  10   5   5
Conchas.........................  94  63  99  68 /  10   5   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  90  62  94  65 /   5   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  94  65  98  70 /  10  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  95  67  98  68 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  96  68  99  69 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  95  66  98  68 /   5   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  97  69  99  69 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  91  63  94  64 /  10   5   0   0
Elk.............................  88  59  92  59 /  10   5  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16