Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
106 FXUS65 KABQ 031127 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 527 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring western, central, and northern New Mexico each afternoon today and Thursday. Gusty winds, small hail, and lightning will accompany the stronger storms. - Minor risk of burn scar flash flooding through Thursday. - Monsoon moisture increases substantially Friday and Saturday. Coverage of moderate to heavy rainfall should increase during this time with isolated thunderstorms. Flash flood potential will depend on rain rate and that could be limited. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1214 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 New Mexico remains under the eastern periphery of a high amplitude ridge over the western CONUS and just north of a subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico. Conditions have dried relative to the past weekend and thus there will be a continued down-trend in afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. Much of today`s convective activity will sport virga, mostly light rainfall amounts and small wetting footprints and more scattered to widespread gusty outflow winds. Have made small adjustments to the NBM guidance to include a greater coverage of this moving south off the Jemez and Sangre de Cristo Mts, putting it more in line with hi-res CAM guidance. Thursday will see more of the same, perhaps with more coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Continental Divide. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1214 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The long term beginning Friday continues to sport at minimum an influx of monsoonal moisture to the region from the remnants of what is now TS Lorena. Global numerical model guidance however continues to struggle with the track of Lorena sporting a wide range of possibilities. As of now, the current NHC track continues to advertise a turn to the northeast across the Baja Peninsula where whatever structure and circulation associated with Lorena will be torn apart. The short-term intensity forecast hedging on low shear and warm SSTs for Lorena to tap into bodes well for this scenario as a stronger TC would last longer and favor a more northerly track. Implications for New Mexico Friday and Saturday? High confidence for abundant broken to overcast cloud cover with numerous to widespread showers and cooler temperatures. A high amount of uncertainty remains regarding the intensity of showers and embedded thunderstorms however as the abundant cloud cover would act to stabilize surface conditions. A backdoor front pushing through eastern NM to the east slopes of the central mountain chain could help to counteract this. As such, flash flood prone areas including recent burn scars should remain in-tune with the forecast for the Friday/Saturday period through this event. Thereafter, conditions clear out west to east Sunday with higher moisture content looking to hold onto the eastern plains of NM into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 VFR holds on thru this morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will bring mostly gusty winds to western and central terminals. Conditions calm again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 No fire weather concerns thru Saturday. Light prevailing winds and deeper mixing hold on today and Thursday with sporadic shower and isolated thunderstorm activity over western and central NM. An influx of monsoonal moisture arrives Friday and Saturday, bringing scattered to widespread shower activity and embedded thunderstorms and cooler temperatures. Drier and warmer conditions return to at least western NM Sunday and into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 89 60 86 59 / 0 5 20 30 Dulce........................... 85 46 84 48 / 5 5 30 30 Cuba............................ 83 54 81 52 / 10 5 40 40 Gallup.......................... 83 53 82 52 / 20 10 40 30 El Morro........................ 79 53 79 52 / 40 30 60 40 Grants.......................... 84 53 83 53 / 30 20 60 40 Quemado......................... 81 54 81 53 / 30 30 30 30 Magdalena....................... 82 59 82 58 / 20 10 20 20 Datil........................... 79 53 80 52 / 30 20 30 30 Reserve......................... 87 53 86 52 / 20 20 20 30 Glenwood........................ 90 58 89 57 / 10 10 20 30 Chama........................... 79 47 78 46 / 10 5 40 30 Los Alamos...................... 79 58 79 56 / 20 5 30 20 Pecos........................... 81 53 81 53 / 10 5 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 51 81 50 / 10 0 20 20 Red River....................... 70 44 71 43 / 10 0 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 74 38 75 40 / 10 0 20 20 Taos............................ 83 51 83 50 / 10 0 20 20 Mora............................ 77 49 78 49 / 20 5 20 20 Espanola........................ 87 57 86 56 / 10 5 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 82 57 81 56 / 10 5 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 85 56 85 55 / 10 5 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 88 65 88 63 / 10 5 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 90 64 90 63 / 10 5 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 92 63 91 62 / 10 5 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 64 89 63 / 10 5 20 20 Belen........................... 92 61 91 60 / 10 5 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 91 63 91 62 / 10 5 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 91 60 91 59 / 10 5 10 20 Corrales........................ 92 63 91 62 / 10 5 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 91 60 91 60 / 10 5 10 20 Placitas........................ 86 61 86 60 / 10 5 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 91 64 90 62 / 10 5 20 30 Socorro......................... 92 64 93 63 / 10 5 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 57 83 56 / 10 5 20 20 Tijeras......................... 84 59 84 57 / 10 5 20 20 Edgewood........................ 85 55 85 54 / 10 5 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 52 86 52 / 10 5 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 80 55 81 55 / 10 5 5 10 Mountainair..................... 84 56 84 55 / 10 5 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 83 56 83 55 / 10 5 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 86 62 86 61 / 10 5 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 77 57 78 56 / 20 5 10 10 Capulin......................... 79 51 82 50 / 10 0 0 10 Raton........................... 83 50 85 51 / 10 0 5 10 Springer........................ 85 51 86 53 / 10 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 81 52 82 52 / 20 0 10 10 Clayton......................... 88 58 90 57 / 10 10 0 5 Roy............................. 84 55 86 56 / 10 10 0 10 Conchas......................... 90 60 92 62 / 10 10 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 88 58 89 61 / 20 10 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 88 58 91 61 / 10 10 0 5 Clovis.......................... 92 62 95 65 / 10 10 0 0 Portales........................ 92 63 95 66 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 90 61 93 63 / 10 10 0 5 Roswell......................... 94 64 96 66 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 88 61 90 62 / 20 5 0 5 Elk............................. 84 58 86 59 / 10 5 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24