098
FXUS65 KABQ 182329 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- Some storms may turn severe over northeast areas Wednesday, and
  to a lesser extent Thursday, with large hail and damaging winds
  being the main threats.

- Smoke from the Frijoles fire will continue to impact air
  quality across portions of northern New Mexico this week.

- Temperatures will trend hotter this week. Major heat risk is
  forecast for some lower elevation locations today through
  Friday, then over central and eastern areas this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A broad mid-level ridge will remain centered near the New Mexico/
Arizona border over the next couple days. In the wake of Monday`s
easterly wave/inverted trough, a drier airmass has made its way
into the region, which will result in a bit of a lull in
convection the remainder of this afternoon. Any isolated showers
and storms that do develop will be primarily over higher terrain.
Most storms will be high-based and precipitation efficiency will
be will be limited, although stronger cells could still produce
localized wind gusts near 50 mph.

Things become more active on Wednesday as a moist backdoor front
pushes southwestward across eastern New Mexico and the eastern
slopes of the central mountain chain. Increasing moisture (PWATS
between 1.00-1.30 inches) combined with daytime heating, will yield
CAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg and 30-50 knots of effective bulk shear.
These parameters support the development of scattered to strong
thunderstorms  with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
threats. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern on Wednesday,
especially where storms repeatedly track along the eastern slopes
of the central mountain chain. High moisture availability and
slow moving or training convection could produce locally heavy
rainfall, with rain rates of 0.5-1.0 inch/hour likely at times.
Some high-res guidance suggests isolated total amounts of up to
1-2 inches on the eastern slopes. This raises the potential for
localized flash flooding, particularly over the steep terrain and
areas susceptible to rapid runoff. Temperatures will be above
normal, with highs generally 5-10 degrees above average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Additional moisture will spread westward into the state by Thursday
as the mid-level ridge shifts northeast toward the Four Corners and
eventually northern New Mexico. This pattern should lead to an
increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage Thursday and Friday,
with scattered to numerous storms possible across much of the
area. Instability and shear may again support a few strong to
severe storms, mainly across northeastern New Mexico. Increasing
soil moisture and repeated rainfall with elevate the flash
flooding threat as well. Temperatures will remain hot with
portions of the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains returning to
the low 100s.

By the weekend, the ridge is expected to strengthen and settle
near the eastern New Mexico/Texas Panhandle border, while drier
air begins filtering into southern New Mexico from the southeast.
This should gradually reduce storm coverage, although isolated to
scattered convection will remain possible along the central
mountain chain and westward. Temperatures will remain above
average through early next week, with triple digit highs
persisting across the lower Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Isolated thunderstorm activity this hour will dwindle over thru
02Z to 04Z across parts of central and western NM. VFR and mostly
calm conditions prevail thru the overnight period and Wednesday
morning. A greater coverage of scattered storms will develop over
the high terrain early Wednesday afternoon, with numerous storms
favoring the Sangre de Cristo`s eastward. Localized IFR/MVFR
conditions will accompany these storms, with storms across
northeastern NM being capable of becoming strong to severe
producing severe gusty winds and large hail. Outflow from this
activity over northeastern NM looks to bring an east canyon wind
to KSAF and KABQ just past the current TAF period Wednesday
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

An overall drier trend is expected today outside of the northern
and western high terrain where limited shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected. In the wake of Monday`s easterly
wave/inverted trough, a drier airmass has made its way into the
region. This has resulted in areas of sub-15 percent minimum
humidity developing over parts of the eastern plains and across
northwest NM. This infiltration of drier air will also influence
humidity recoveries tonight being generally fair.

On Wednesday, a moist backdoor front is progged to push
southwestward across eastern New Mexico and the eastern slopes of
the central mountain chain. This will ultimately set the stage
for the development of scattered to strong showers and
thunderstorms, particularly east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Additional low level moisture is forecast to funnel
into the state from the east Wednesday night and Thursday morning,
while the high pressure system over the New Mexico/Arizona border
is forecast to shift gradually northeastward reaching near or
just north of the New Mexico/Colorado border by Friday. As a
result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
return both Thursday and Friday.

Isolated to scattered coverage favors the western and northern
mountains through the weekend, with low chances in the eastern
plains and the lower elevations of central New Mexico. Hot
temperatures are forecast areawide the rest of the week and
weekend, with highs generally running 5-10 degrees above normal.
Afternoon humidities will remain low as well, with values
bottoming out between 15-25% each day. Prevailing winds will
generally be light outside of briefly gusty and erratic outflow
winds near showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  99  63  99 /   0  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  56  94  56  95 /   0  20  10  30
Cuba............................  60  94  60  93 /   5  10  10  10
Gallup..........................  56  94  59  93 /   5  10  20  10
El Morro........................  56  87  56  87 /  10  20  30  50
Grants..........................  55  92  55  90 /  10  20  30  20
Quemado.........................  59  88  59  88 /  20  20  30  50
Magdalena.......................  63  89  63  88 /   5  20  20  30
Datil...........................  59  86  58  85 /  10  30  20  50
Reserve.........................  58  93  58  92 /  10  40  20  60
Glenwood........................  63  96  62  96 /  20  50  20  60
Chama...........................  55  86  53  86 /   0  30  20  50
Los Alamos......................  63  88  62  83 /   0  30  40  30
Pecos...........................  58  91  57  90 /   0  20  40  70
Cerro/Questa....................  57  87  55  87 /   0  30  50  40
Red River.......................  50  77  48  76 /   0  40  60  60
Angel Fire......................  42  79  41  77 /   0  50  60  70
Taos............................  52  88  50  88 /   0  20  50  30
Mora............................  56  86  55  85 /   0  50  40  60
Espanola........................  66  97  65  97 /   0  20  30  20
Santa Fe........................  60  92  58  86 /   5  10  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  60  94  58  88 /   0  10  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  97  64  93 /   0  10  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  98  67  94 /   0  10  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  69  99  66  95 /   0  10  30   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  99  65  95 /   0  10  30   5
Belen...........................  66 100  66  99 /   0   5  20   5
Bernalillo......................  68  99  66  97 /   0  10  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  65  99  65  97 /   0  10  30   5
Corrales........................  68 100  65  97 /   0  10  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  65  99  65  98 /   0  10  30   5
Placitas........................  67  95  64  92 /   0  10  40  20
Rio Rancho......................  69  98  69  97 /   0  10  30  10
Socorro.........................  68  99  66  97 /   0  10  20   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  65  91  64  90 /   0  10  30  40
Tijeras.........................  65  93  64  91 /   0  10  30  40
Edgewood........................  62  92  62  90 /   0  20  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  94  55  91 /   0  10  40  40
Clines Corners..................  58  91  58  84 /   5  20  40  50
Mountainair.....................  62  93  62  91 /   5  20  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  61  91  61  90 /   0  20  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  67  95  67  94 /   0  10  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  61  88  60  83 /   5  30  20  50
Capulin.........................  58  84  57  86 /   0  50  60  40
Raton...........................  53  87  54  89 /   0  70  70  40
Springer........................  58  91  56  92 /   0  50  60  40
Las Vegas.......................  54  89  54  84 /   0  40  50  50
Clayton.........................  63  88  64  90 /   0  20  40   5
Roy.............................  63  90  62  89 /   0  40  50  20
Conchas.........................  68  98  67  97 /   0  20  50  10
Santa Rosa......................  68  96  66  94 /   5  20  50  10
Tucumcari.......................  68  98  68  97 /   0  10  30   0
Clovis..........................  66  99  66  96 /   0  10  30   5
Portales........................  69 101  67 100 /   0  10  30   5
Fort Sumner.....................  68 100  69  98 /   0  10  40   5
Roswell.........................  70 104  70 101 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  66  97  66  96 /   0  10  10   5
Elk.............................  62  93  62  92 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...24